{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T06:43:42Z","timestamp":1769150622163,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]],"date-time":"2021-12-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1639612800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":349,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100011332","name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100011332","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Complexity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>As the most important component of the capital market, the stock market has always been regarded as the \u201cbarometer\u201d of the macroeconomy. However, many researchers have found that the stock market and macroeconomy are operating separately. This paper uses the dynamic Bayesian network method to study the dynamic relationship between the Chinese macroeconomic system and the stock market. The study found that the correlation between the macroeconomic system and the stock market is not consistent in different time periods. For most of the time, the stock system and the macroeconomic system are relatively independent. However, several macroeconomic factors such as Purchase Management Index could affect the stock market through some industries. A conclusion is drawn that the \u201cbarometer\u201d function of the stock market is weak and easy to be damaged by factors such as the irrational sentiment of investors.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/2574267","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]],"date-time":"2021-12-16T21:20:06Z","timestamp":1639689606000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["The Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomy and Stock Market in China: Evidence from Bayesian Network"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2021","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7514-957X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yue","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1237-5761","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Haoyuan","family":"Feng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4787-8406","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kun","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/0-306-48082-4_3"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20954816.2019.1667603"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/6645570"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-6803.1995.tb00563.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/1062-9769(95)90049-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0004-3702(86)90072-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/9789814417358_0001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w0456"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/261703"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jimonfin.2005.03.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.4.2.19"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2017.10.033"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(sici)1099-1255(199609)11:5<573::aid-jae413>3.0.co;2-t"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3233\/jem-1999-0166"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2007.07.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/096031000331879"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econmod.2012.12.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14697688.2020.1736317"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s1059-0560(99)00056-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_2","article-title":"The effect of macroeconomic variables on stock returns on Dhaka stock exchange","volume":"2","author":"Quadir M. M.","year":"2012","journal-title":"International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5430\/air.v1n2p171"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/a:1020249912095"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_2","unstructured":"HaizhenW. Bayesian Probabilistic Inference on Firm-Level Stock Price Dynamics 2016 Suranaree University of Technology Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Thesis School of Mathematics Institute of Science."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"ZhangX. ZhuR. andJunL. J. L. Using bayesian network for monetary structure and supply researching Proceedings of the 2016 2nd International Conference on Education Technology Management and Humanities Science January 2016 Beijing China Atlantis Press https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2991\/etmhs-16.2016.130.","DOI":"10.2991\/etmhs-16.2016.130"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_2","unstructured":"KhorramA. PingC. W. andHuiL. T. Causal knowledge-driven approach for stock analysis 2011 Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Business and Economics Research IACSIT Press Kuala Lumpur Malaysia."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14697688.2014.906811"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2008.04.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2015.01.035"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"HassanM. R.andNathB. Stock market forecasting using hidden Markov model: a new approach Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications (ISDA\u201905) 2005 IEEE 192\u2013196 https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/isda.2005.85 2-s2.0-33846963860.","DOI":"10.1109\/ISDA.2005.85"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s1057-5219(02)00078-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.22201\/fe.01851667p.2021.317.77127"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.120266"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v035.i03"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b10391"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-6446-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_2","volume-title":"Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference","author":"Pearl J.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-1-55860-332-5.50035-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_2","unstructured":"BouckaertR. R. Bayesian Belief Networks: From Construction to Inference 1995 PhD Thesis Doctoral Dissertation Universiteit Utrecht Faculteit Wiskunde en Informatica Utrecht Netherlands."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_2","volume-title":"Optimal Statistical Decisions","author":"DeGroot M. H.","year":"2005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20954816.2019.1690268"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20954816.2019.1633825"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_2","first-page":"55","article-title":"Is the stock market a barometer of the economy? Based on 2005-2017 years\u2019 CSI 300 index and PMI data","volume":"40","author":"Chao L.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20954816.2019.1595330"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20954816.2020.1757570"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20954816.2020.1844609"}],"container-title":["Complexity"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/complexity\/2021\/2574267.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/downloads.hindawi.com\/journals\/complexity\/2021\/2574267.xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/2021\/2574267","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,9]],"date-time":"2024-08-09T21:44:03Z","timestamp":1723239843000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1155\/2021\/2574267"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Mariya","family":"Gubareva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1155\/2021\/2574267"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/2021\/2574267","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1076-2787","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-0526","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2021-07-15","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-11-29","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-12-16","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"2574267"}}