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Faced with the fatal pandemic, countries around the world have taken various prevention and control measures. One of the important issues in epidemic prevention and control is the assessment of the prevention and control effectiveness. Changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases can reflect the impact of policies in certain regions. In this paper, a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model is applied to investigate the intrinsic changes during the epidemic in certain countries and regions. In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence of the epidemic control measures, the sequence is fitted to the STAR model; then, comparisons between the dates of transition points and those of releasing certain policies are applied. Our model well fits the data. Moreover, the nonlinear smooth function within the STAR model reveals that the implementation of prevention and control policies is effective in some regions with different speeds. However, the ineffectiveness is also revealed and the threat of a second wave had already emerged.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/6659117","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,20]],"date-time":"2021-01-20T21:20:08Z","timestamp":1611177608000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Policy and Law Assessment of COVID\u201019 Based on Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2021","author":[{"given":"Jieqi","family":"Lei","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Xuyuan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Yiming","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4253-5244","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lian","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0692-3829","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lin","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(20)30185-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(20)30154-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2020.02.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2606.200357"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.12178\/1001-0548.2020027"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb4557"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa037"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30260-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(20)30074-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb4218"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jebm.12376"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.01.23.916395"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_2","first-page":"145","article-title":"The epidemilogical characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus distases (COVID-19) in China","volume":"41","author":"Zhang Y.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Epidemiological"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2002032"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_2","unstructured":"WelleniusG. 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