{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T06:06:41Z","timestamp":1791871601610,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,11]],"date-time":"2021-10-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1633910400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Emergency Medicine International"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Background. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can cause various complications. Septic shock is a relatively common and serious complication that causes uncontrolled systemic inflammatory response syndrome, which is one of the main causes of death. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of SAP patients during the initial 24 hours following admission. Materials and Methods. All the data utilized in this study were obtained from the MIMIC-III (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III) database. The data were analyzed using multivariate Cox regression, and the performance of the proposed nomogram was evaluated based on Harrell\u2019s concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The clinical value of the prediction model was tested using decision-curve analysis (DCA). The primary outcomes were 28-day, 60-day, and 90-day mortality rates. Results. The 850 patients included in the analysis comprised 595 in the training cohort and 255 in the validation cohort. The training cohort consisted of 353 (59.3%) males and 242 (40.7%) females with SAP. Multivariate Cox regression showed that weight, sex, insurance status, explicit sepsis, SAPSII score, Elixhauser score, bilirubin, anion gap, creatinine, hematocrit, hemoglobin, RDW, SPO2, and respiratory rate were independent prognostic factors for the survival of SAP patients admitted to an intensive care unit. The predicted values were compared using C-indexes, calibration plots, integrated discrimination improvement, net reclassification improvement, and DCA. Conclusions. We have identified some important demographic and laboratory parameters related to the prognosis of patients with SAP and have used them to establish a more accurate and convenient nomogram for evaluating their 28-day, 60-day, and 90-day mortality rates.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/9190908","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,13]],"date-time":"2021-10-13T01:34:45Z","timestamp":1634088885000},"page":"1-12","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Severe Acute Pancreatitis: An Analysis Based on the Large MIMIC-III Clinical Database"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2021","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6975-2783","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Didi","family":"Han","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi\u2019an 710061, Shaanxi Province, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6658-7340","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Fengshuo","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi\u2019an 710061, Shaanxi Province, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1622-2850","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chengzhuo","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi\u2019an 710061, Shaanxi Province, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4084-7762","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Luming","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Intensive Care Unit, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9679-7338","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rui","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi\u2019an 710061, Shaanxi Province, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6428-2372","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shuai","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Shannxi University of Chinese Medicine, Xianyang, Shaanxi, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9369-6611","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zichen","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, University of California, Irvine 92697, California, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2237-8771","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jun","family":"Lyu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi\u2019an 710061, Shaanxi Province, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"1","first-page":"205","article-title":"Clinical observation of acute pancreatitis complicated with sepsis","volume":"30","author":"W. 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