{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T16:28:12Z","timestamp":1769185692325,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,11]],"date-time":"2022-10-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1665446400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":283,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,1]],"date-time":"2022-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640995200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Complexity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper uses agent\u2010based modelling to study the frequent booms and busts in Chinese agricultural markets. First, an artificial agricultural commodity market consisting of heterogeneous agents, such as producers, consumers, and speculators, is built. A numerical simulation suggests that speculation can cause large price fluctuations via nonlinear price dynamics. Then, parameters are estimated by the simulated method of moments using garlic and ginger price data in China from 2006Q2 to 2018Q3. The estimation yields a statistically significant speculative behavior parameter, supporting speculators\u2019 existence. Based on the well\u2010estimated model, a low\u2010cost policy experiment aiming at market stabilization is carried out. The essence of this policy is to release the theoretical steady state of the estimated model as the government\u2010guided price to producers. The guided price, even partially followed by producers, can reduce simulated price variances and weaken speculators\u2019 negative impact on market stability. Robustness tests show that the effect of policy experiment is robust under a 20% change in any parameter value or a 5% change in the guided price.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2022\/4869762","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,11]],"date-time":"2022-10-11T23:06:36Z","timestamp":1665529596000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Booms and Busts in Chinese Agricultural Markets: An Agent\u2010Based Model"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2022","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0028-0175","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Xinyi","family":"Deng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_2","first-page":"87","article-title":"Financial availability, financial market participation and household portfolio choice","volume":"3","author":"Yin Z.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Economic Research Journal"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_2","first-page":"861","article-title":"Orange juice and weather","volume":"74","author":"Roll R.","year":"1984","journal-title":"The American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43016-021-00362-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/agec.12372"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_2","first-page":"1251","article-title":"Risk and regulation of emerging price volatility of non-staple agricultural commodity in China","volume":"6","author":"Miao X.","year":"2011","journal-title":"African Journal of Agricultural Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_2","first-page":"140","article-title":"Goods financialization and inflation in China","volume":"14","author":"Zhang C. S.","year":"2014","journal-title":"Economic Research Journal"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1477-9552.2010.00248.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09603107.2011.619496"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.qref.2014.06.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6419.2010.00634.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1883084"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gfs.2012.10.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_2","first-page":"817","volume-title":"Handbook of Agricultural Economics","author":"Wright B. D.","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2004.09.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econmod.2010.03.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agsy.2019.102718"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_2","volume-title":"Handbook of Computational Economics: Agent-Based Computational Economics","author":"Tesfatsion L.","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_2","volume-title":"Handbook of Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling","author":"Hommes C.","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0167-2681(97)00062-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-2681(94)90039-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0165-1889(98)00011-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_2","volume-title":"Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos","author":"Strogatz S. H.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.10.1.87"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.10.1.69"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/s0269888912000136"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10614-016-9638-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2011.10.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2951768"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2021.10.007"}],"container-title":["Complexity"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/2022\/4869762","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1155\/2022\/4869762","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/2022\/4869762","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T21:11:57Z","timestamp":1769116317000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1155\/2022\/4869762"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Zhi-Qiang","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,1]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1155\/2022\/4869762"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/2022\/4869762","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1076-2787","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-0526","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-07-04","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-08-18","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-10-11","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"4869762"}}