{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,24]],"date-time":"2026-03-24T11:41:07Z","timestamp":1774352467564,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":79,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771977600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":55,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Complexity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The 21st century has witnessed political upheavals, economic shocks, and inflation, all of which have disrupted global trade. In response, nations are increasingly aligning with blocs such as the SCO, BRICS, INSTC, and IMEEC to strengthen their resilience. This study asks How can countries identify reliable trade partners with stable openness? Are stable trade partners (STPs) always symmetric? Drawing on Trade Interdependence Theory, Exit Cost Models, and fuzzy logic, the study introduces the STP index\u2014constructed from deviations in macroeconomic stability, political stability, and trade openness volatility. A lower STP score signals higher stability. We compute STPs for 122 countries from 2000 to 2023, using two specifications: one including and one excluding two major recession periods (the global financial crisis of 2007\u20132008 and the COVID\u201019 crisis of 2020\u20132021), with inflation serving as a proxy for macroeconomic volatility. Additionally, we examine STPs using 5\u2010year windows from 2019 to 2023 and employ net barter terms of trade as an alternative volatility proxy. Crucially, the analysis reveals a paradox that STPs are not necessarily symmetric, addressing a gap in the trade literature and offering guidance for policymakers navigating global uncertainty.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/cplx\/9635278","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T21:12:59Z","timestamp":1773004379000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The Stability\u2013Asymmetry Paradox in International Trade: A Fuzzy Logic Categorization of Partnerships"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2026","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0854-0485","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Iman","family":"Bastanifar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0838-3176","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kashif Hasan","family":"Khan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1474-0539","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Axel","family":"Marx","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/socpro\/spw032"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/23322039.2024.2363457"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.4324\/9781003454540-13","volume-title":"India\u2019s Economic Corridor Initiatives","author":"Azmi S. N.","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.36348\/sjhss.2023.v08i09.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/s41311-022-00407-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/s41278-024-00289-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2023.04.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4324\/9781003454540","volume-title":"India\u2019s Economic Corridor Initiatives: INSTC and Chabahar Port","author":"Khan K. H.","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-023-25665-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jrfm17080342"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-economics-021622-020416"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/s42214-020-00074-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/s41599-023-02075-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jrfm14030090"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_2","first-page":"276","article-title":"Effect of Political Regime, Trade Liberalization and Domestic Investment on FDI Inflows in Pakistan: New Evidence Using ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure","volume":"12","author":"Hashmi S. H.","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Journal of Information, Business and Management"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeca.2024.e00389"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.98.3.690"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinteco.2010.08.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/00208180151140612"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_2","volume-title":"Montesquieu: The Spirit of the Laws","author":"d Montesquieu C.","year":"1989"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_2","volume-title":"Principles of Political Economy","author":"Mill J. S.","year":"1965"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-2478.00042"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5040\/9798216427643.ch-020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4337\/9781800884120.00018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0020818300018828"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/073889420302000104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/twec.12080"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.103.3.129"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/696277"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0019-9958(65)90241-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_2","unstructured":"DraesekeR.andGilesD. A. A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Modelling the Underground Economy Proceedings of the International Conference on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 99) 1999 453\u2013458."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_2","unstructured":"StroomerC.andGilesD. A. Income Convergence and Trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence 2003 University of Victoria Econometrics Working Papers 0304."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_2","volume-title":"Fuzzy-Set Social Science","author":"Ragin C. C.","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00467"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2017.06.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_2","first-page":"26","article-title":"The Role of Chinese Trade in the Economic Stability of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan","volume":"10","author":"Bastanifar I.","year":"2025","journal-title":"Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: International Journal"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"SmithA. An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations 1776.","DOI":"10.1093\/oseo\/instance.00043218"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_2","first-page":"127","volume-title":"Readings in the Economics of the Division of Labor: The Classical Tradition","author":"Ricardo D.","year":"1877"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1996(79)90017-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w22138"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02707986"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-37314-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9396.00072"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_2","volume-title":"Dynamics of Regional Integration","author":"Walz U.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeca.2006.01.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_2","article-title":"Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike","author":"Di Pace F.","year":"2024","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3932(02)00208-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5040\/9798216384106.ch-003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/421552"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-96-6011-7_2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_2","volume-title":"How Does the Government Measure Inflation?","author":"Salwati N.","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3934\/QFE.2023033"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_2","volume-title":"At More than 500%, Zimbabwe\u2019s Ncube Sees Inflation Stabilizing","author":"Haslinda A.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_2","unstructured":"Reuters IMF Projects Venezuela Inflation Will Hit 1 000 000 Percent in 2018. Reuters 2018 https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/economy\/imf-projects-venezuela-inflation-will-hit-1000000-percent-in-2018-idUSKBN1KD2L8\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_2","unstructured":"TambyJ. L. An Integrated Approach for the Treatment of Outliers in Sub-Annual Economic Surveys Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section American Statistical Association 1988 229\u2013234."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_2","first-page":"419","article-title":"Optimal Winsorising Cut-Offs for a Stratified Finite Population Estimator","volume":"10","author":"Kokic P. N.","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Official Statistics"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_2","article-title":"The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis","author":"Howell L. D.","year":"2007","journal-title":"PRS Group"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13629379608407567"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/asp.2022.0046"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_61_2","volume-title":"The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics","author":"L\u00fctkepohl H.","year":"2008"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691218632-002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econmod.2013.09.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_64_2","volume-title":"State-Dependent Local Projections (Working Paper 2302)","author":"Gon\u00e7alves S.","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_65_2","first-page":"1138","article-title":"Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment","volume":"78","author":"DeLong J. B.","year":"1988","journal-title":"The American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_66_2","article-title":"Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare","author":"Baumol W.","year":"1986","journal-title":"The American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_67_2","volume-title":"Advanced Macroeconomics","author":"Romer D.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_68_2","volume-title":"Social Choice and Multicriterion Decision-Making","author":"Arrow K. J.","year":"1986"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_69_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11205-011-9911-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_70_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960010402"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_71_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-4896(93)00737-f"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_72_2","unstructured":"United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report 2023\/2024: Technical Notes 2024 https:\/\/hdr.undp.org."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_73_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/cafr-05-2025-0073"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_74_2","unstructured":"LonerganT.andRingwoodJ. Linguistic Modelling of Short-Timescale Electricity Consumption Using Fuzzy Modelling Techniques Proceedings of the Irish DSP and Control Colloquium (IDSPCC \u201995) 1995."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_75_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1997.633847"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_76_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/app12020918"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_77_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13634-020-00706-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_78_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/systems10060258"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_79_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119994374"}],"container-title":["Complexity"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/cplx\/9635278","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1155\/cplx\/9635278","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/cplx\/9635278","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,24]],"date-time":"2026-03-24T09:51:28Z","timestamp":1774345888000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1155\/cplx\/9635278"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Siew Ann","family":"Cheong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"references-count":79,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1155\/cplx\/9635278"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/cplx\/9635278","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1076-2787","1099-0526"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1076-2787","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-0526","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-04-13","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-12-24","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-02-25","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"9635278"}}