{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]],"date-time":"2026-10-14T17:39:52Z","timestamp":1791999592258,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]],"date-time":"2025-11-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763942400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":327,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>On August 14, 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared monkeypox (mpox) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Shortly thereafter, Thailand reported Asia\u2019s first confirmed case of the Clade Ib strain. Given Thailand\u2019s high international travel volume, anticipating short\u2010term case trajectories is essential for situational awareness.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We forecast monthly mpox cases using the Department of Disease Control (DDC) data from July 2022 to September 2024 and evaluate Poisson and negative binomial generalized linear models (GLMs), Holt\u2013Winters exponential smoothing, NeuralProphet, and a stacked ensemble. Rolling\u2010origin cross\u2010validation was used to assess out\u2010of\u2010sample accuracy (MAE, RMSE, and MAPE) and empirical interval coverage (80% and 95%).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Holt\u2013Winters provided the most accurate single\u2010model forecasts by RMSE, while the stacked ensemble yielded the most reliable uncertainty calibration. Forecasts for October\u2013December 2024 suggest relatively low case counts with non\u2010negligible uncertainty, indicating the need for continued vigilance.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These findings are exploratory decision\u2010support inputs that complement ongoing surveillance and may help inform adaptive planning under both low\u2010 and high\u2010incidence scenarios.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1155\/ipid\/7199833","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]],"date-time":"2025-11-24T11:04:18Z","timestamp":1763982258000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Forecasting the Monkeypox Outbreak Using Limited Data: A Case Study of Thailand"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2025","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9333-121X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sherif Eneye","family":"Shuaib","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3062-4696","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jirapond","family":"Muangprathub","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5070-0772","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Arthit","family":"Intarasit","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2945-3922","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pakwan","family":"Riyapan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/rmv.2475"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MS9.0000000000001223"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.31478\/202111c"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_2","volume-title":"WHO Director-General Declares Mpox Outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcpa.2012.06.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_2","volume-title":"Epidemiological Update: Mpox Due to Monkeypox Virus Clade I","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_2","volume-title":"FACT SHEET: United States Response to the Clade I Mpox Outbreak","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid3108.250255"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_2","volume-title":"Commentary: Global Mpox Emergency\u2013The World Must Show It Learnt Its Lessons From COVID-19","author":"Yang H. 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