{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,9]],"date-time":"2026-08-09T03:01:09Z","timestamp":1786244469197,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":102,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,24]],"date-time":"2026-06-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782259200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":174,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["The Scientific World Journal"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Understanding how climate change and land use\/land cover (LULC) dynamics influence watershed hydrological processes is essential for achieving sustainable water and land management, particularly in data\u2010scarce and erosion\u2010prone basins. This study assesses the individual and synergistic effects of CMIP6\u2010based climate projections and LULC change on sediment yield and surface runoff in the Baro River sub\u2010basin. Utilizing a comprehensive hydrological modeling framework, this study integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with CMIP6 multi\u2010model ensemble climate projections under SSP2\u20104.5 and SSP5\u20108.5 scenarios to simulate runoff in addition to sediment yield. We projected future LULC dynamics (2024\u20132064) using a multi\u2010layer perceptron\u2013cellular automata\u2013Markov chain (MLP\u2010CA\u2010MC) model. Results indicate statistically significant warming in both historical and future periods, with mean temperature increases of up to 3.4\u00b0C under SSP5\u20108.5, alongside precipitation increases of 6%\u201313%. LULC projections (2024\u20132064) indicate an 18%\u201326% increase in agricultural and settlement areas at the expense of forest, grassland, and shrubland. The SWAT model demonstrated high predictive accuracy; Nash\u2013Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values remained strong across both calibration (runoff: &gt;\u20090.87; sediment: &gt;\u20090.76) and validation (runoff: 0.84; sediment: 0.73). Projected sediment yield increases from a 2024 baseline of 49.23\u2009t\/ha to as high as 157.68\u2009t\/ha over the late period (2072\u20132100) under the SSP5\u20108.5 scenario with 2064 land use conditions. Similarly, surface runoff is expected to peak at 966.58\u2009mm under high\u2010emission conditions. These results highlight the critical sensitivity of the Baro River sub\u2010basin to both climate variability and anthropogenic land degradation, underscoring the urgent need for integrated watershed management to mitigate downstream sedimentation and ensure the sustainability of water infrastructure.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/tswj\/7891262","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,24]],"date-time":"2026-06-24T08:06:18Z","timestamp":1782288378000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Projected Impacts of Climate and Land Use\/Land Cover Change on Sediment Yield and Surface Runoff in the Baro River Sub\u2010Basin, Ethiopia"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2026","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7867-6201","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tewodros Getu","family":"Engida","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-7192-7965","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alemayehu","family":"Muluneh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6635-4317","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Moltot","family":"Zewdie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2012.02.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10666-016-9511-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.10814"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fclim.2024.1453726"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315838779","volume-title":"Global Warming","author":"Harvey L. D.","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2015.12.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envadv.2022.100224"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_2","article-title":"Climate Change: Global Temperature Projections","volume":"6","author":"Lindsey R.","year":"2021","journal-title":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_2","article-title":"Foreword Technical and Preface","author":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","year":"2021","journal-title":"Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/24749508.2020.1775167"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.14335"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3133\/pp1894E","volume-title":"Climate Change and Future Water Availability in the United States","author":"Scholl M. A.","year":"2025"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2015.11.060"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00477-016-1218-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.125723"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_2","volume-title":"Evaluation of the Influence of Soil Parameters in Hydrological Modelling","author":"Meaurio M.","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2005.03.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11975\/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.20.034"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/w14152346"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2018.08.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.10621"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2015.05.078"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoleng.2017.04.061"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(03)00019-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2166\/nh.2015.206"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_2","article-title":"Multimodel ensembles of streamflow forecasts: Role of predictor state in developing optimal combinations","volume":"44","author":"Collins D.","year":"2008","journal-title":"Water Resources Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667.2013.819433"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16132385"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e23049"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1394","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.11.191","article-title":"Modeling the Hydrological Impacts of Land Use\/Land Cover Changes in the Andassa Watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia","volume":"619","author":"Gashaw T.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2019.e02981"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_2","volume-title":"Impact of Land Use Land Cover Change on Stream Flow and Sediment Yield in Temcha Watershed","author":"Muhammed A.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/land11122173"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40068-022-00265-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/6617541"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11600-022-00956-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e13965"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1071\/ES19040","article-title":"Configuration and Spin-Up of ACCESS-CM2, the New Generation Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model","volume":"70","author":"BI D.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1573","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-1573-2019","article-title":"The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): The Main Progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6","volume":"12","author":"Wu T.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4823","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-4823-2019","article-title":"The Canadian Earth System Model Version 5 (CanESM5. 0.3)","volume":"12","author":"Swart N. C.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6","volume":"2021","author":"D\u00f6schers R.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development Discussions"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2019MS002012","article-title":"The Flexible Global Ocean\u2010Atmosphere\u2010Land System Model Grid\u2010Point Version 3 (FGOALS\u2010G3): Description and Evaluation","volume":"12","author":"Li L.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2019MS002015","article-title":"The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL\u2010ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics","volume":"12","author":"Dunne J. P.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL096204","article-title":"The Mechanisms of Cloudiness Evolution Responsible for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in Climate Model Inm-Cm4-8","volume":"48","author":"Volodin E.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Geophysical Research Letters"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2019MS002010","article-title":"Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL\u2010CM6A\u2010LR Climate Model","volume":"12","author":"Boucher O.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2727","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-2727-2019","article-title":"Description and Basic Evaluation of Simulated Mean State, Internal Variability, and Climate Sensitivity in MIROC6","volume":"12","author":"Tatebe H.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2197","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-13-2197-2020","article-title":"Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth System Model and the Evaluation of Biogeochemical Processes and Feedbacks","volume":"13","author":"Hajima T.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"998","DOI":"10.1029\/2018MS001400","article-title":"Developments in the MPI\u2010M Earth System Model Version 1.2 (MPI\u2010ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2","volume":"11","author":"Mauritsen T.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6165","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-13-6165-2020","article-title":"Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and Key Climate Response of CMIP6 DECK, Historical, and Scenario Simulations","volume":"13","author":"Seland \u00d8.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geoscientific Model Development"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13143-021-00240-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-023-06778-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-020-05447-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/0022-3727\/8\/13\/005"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907187"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00703-016-0462-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5252"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0034-4257(01)00295-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15041162"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su10103421"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12524-022-01618-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_61_2","article-title":"Modeling the Relationship Between Land Use\/Land Cover and Land Surface Temperature in Dhaka","volume":"4","author":"Kafy A.-A.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Bangladesh Using CA-ANN Algorithm. Environmental Challenges"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16091612"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12518-022-00472-w"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_64_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.42256"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_65_2","article-title":"Pesticides Fate and Transport Predicted by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)","volume":"3","author":"Neitsch S.","year":"2002","journal-title":"Atrazine, Metolachlor and Trifluralin in the Sugar Creek Watershed: BRC Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_66_2","volume-title":"Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2009","author":"Neitsch S. L.","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_67_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021859600001441"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_68_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.13272"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_69_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pce.2008.06.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_70_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.35710"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_71_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.23153"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_72_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"839","DOI":"10.1007\/s00704-018-2412-x","article-title":"Observed Changes in Extremes of Daily Rainfall and Temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia","volume":"135","author":"Worku G.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_73_2","article-title":"Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis","author":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","year":"2021","journal-title":"Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_74_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pclm.0000700"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_75_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2020.e05092"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_76_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13163331"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_77_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-11558-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_78_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s44288-024-00097-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_79_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11648\/j.ijepp.20210905.13"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_80_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/soilsystems3040068"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_81_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-04282-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_82_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2166\/h2oj.2025.038"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_83_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0079296"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_84_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s41976-024-00106-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_85_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0309133315598725"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_86_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.1384"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_87_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40068-025-00422-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_88_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40808-024-01971-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_89_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40068-024-00370-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_90_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40068-021-00225-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_91_2","first-page":"6","article-title":"Evaluating Impact of Land-Use\/Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff Using Arc SWAT Model in Sore and Geba Watershed, Ethiopia","volume":"9","author":"Mekuriaw T.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Environment and Earth Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_92_2","article-title":"Land Use Land Cover Change and Its Implication on Surface Runoff: A Case Study of Baro River Basin in South Western Ethiopia","volume":"5","author":"Tilahun A. K.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Environment and Earth Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_93_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13280-010-0047-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_94_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667.2017.1365149"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_95_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2018.e00771"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_96_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fenvs.2025.1534850"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_97_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ldr.944"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_98_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.earscirev.2005.02.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_99_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iswcr.2020.06.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_100_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/w14030325"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_101_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2021.105308"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_102_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2021.105859"}],"container-title":["The Scientific World Journal"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/tswj\/7891262","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1155\/tswj\/7891262","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1155\/tswj\/7891262","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,24]],"date-time":"2026-06-24T08:06:24Z","timestamp":1782288384000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1155\/tswj\/7891262"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Abreham Berta","family":"Aneseyee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"references-count":102,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1155\/tswj\/7891262"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1155\/tswj\/7891262","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2356-6140","1537-744X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2356-6140","type":"print"},{"value":"1537-744X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-04-21","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-05-29","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-06-24","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"7891262"}}