{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,19]],"date-time":"2026-02-19T22:39:27Z","timestamp":1771540767069,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"S. Karger AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,13]],"date-time":"2016-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1476316800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Services\/SiteLicenses"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,13]],"date-time":"2016-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1476316800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Services\/SiteLicenses"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Ophthalmic Res"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017]]},"abstract":"<b><i>Aims:<\/i><\/b> The aim of this paper was to develop a risk prediction model for the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Koreans using systemic and environmental factors. <b><i>Methods:<\/i><\/b> The study sample included 10,890 individuals 50 years of age or older; 318 (2.92%) presented with early AMD findings in baseline examinations. Re-examinations were performed in 157 (49.37%) who were followed up for 4.4 years. The multivariate analysis of covariates included demographic and environmental factors. After using these data to develop a risk prediction model, the individual algorithm was made, and receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to assess the predictive ability of the risk model for AMD progression. <b><i>Results:<\/i><\/b> The individual algorithm to predict the AMD progression risk based on systemic and ocular factors was as follows: Y = -9.565 + 1.709 (drusen location<sub>center<\/sub>) + 0.795 (drusen location<sub>paracentral<\/sub>) + 1.074 (both eyes) + 0.094 (drusen size<sub>intermediate<\/sub>) + 0.034 (drusen size<sub>large<\/sub>) + 0.614 (drusen number<sub>10-20<\/sub>) + 2.278 (drusen number<sub>>20<\/sub>) + 0.577 (hyperpigmentation) + 0.725 (hypopigmentation) + 0.079 (male) - 0.025 (age) - 0.921 (SMK<sub>ex<\/sub>) + 1.574 (SMK<sub>current<\/sub>) + 0.363 (total protein) + 1.626 (globulin), where SMK means smoking status. The C statistics for the model was 0.84 (0.75-0.92) indicating a good predictive power. <b><i>Conclusion:<\/i><\/b> A comprehensive risk prediction model for AMD progression was made to calculate the individual AMD progression risk using personal systemic and environmental factors.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1159\/000449168","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,12]],"date-time":"2016-10-12T21:01:24Z","timestamp":1476306084000},"page":"32-36","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Risk Prediction Model for Progression of Age-Related Macular Degeneration"],"prefix":"10.1159","volume":"57","author":[{"given":"Ko Un","family":"Shin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Su Jeong","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jeong Hun","family":"Bae","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mi Yeon","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"127","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archopht.122.4.477"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra062326"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2014.03.022"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.14-15841"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2014.01.016"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2013.07.053"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/dna.2013.2072"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaophthalmol.2013.2578"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09286580902999413"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3109\/09286586.2015.1129425"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0039-6257(05)80092-X"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2014.04.040"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2014.02.004"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2005.08.024"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2012.06.043"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/heartjnl-2014-306663"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.diabres.2014.12.005"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2014.11.041"}],"container-title":["Ophthalmic Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Article\/Pdf\/449168","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Article\/Pdf\/449168","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Article\/Pdf\/449168","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,23]],"date-time":"2025-04-23T17:10:13Z","timestamp":1745428213000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/article\/doi\/10.1159\/000449168"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,13]]},"references-count":18,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,12,7]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1159\/000449168","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0030-3747","1423-0259"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0030-3747","type":"print"},{"value":"1423-0259","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,13]]}}}