{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,19]],"date-time":"2026-09-19T17:03:59Z","timestamp":1789837439144,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"S. Karger AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,1]],"date-time":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1577836800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Services\/SiteLicenses"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,1]],"date-time":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1577836800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.karger.com\/Services\/SiteLicenses"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Ophthalmologica"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Introduction:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; We present a prediction model for progression from early\/intermediate to advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) within 5.9 years. &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Objectives:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; To evaluate the combined role of genetic, nongenetic, and phenotypic risk factors for conversion from early to late AMD over \u22655 years. &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Methods:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; Baseline phenotypic characteristics were evaluated based on color fundus photography, spectral-domain optical coherence tomography, and infrared images. Genotyping for 36 single-nucleotide polymorphisms as well as systemic lipid and complement measurements were performed. Multivariable backward logistic regression resulted in a final prediction model. &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Results and Conclusions:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; During a mean of 5.9 years of follow-up, 22.4% (&lt;i&gt;n&lt;\/i&gt; = 52) of the patients (&lt;i&gt;n&lt;\/i&gt; = 232) showed progression to late AMD. The multivariable prediction model included age, &lt;i&gt;CFH&lt;\/i&gt; variant rs1061170, pigment abnormalities, drusenoid pigment epithelial detachment (DPED), and hyperreflective foci (HRF). The model showed an area under the curve of 0.969 (95% confidence interval 0.948\u20130.990) and adequate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, &lt;i&gt;p&lt;\/i&gt; = 0.797). In addition to advanced age and carrying a &lt;i&gt;CFH&lt;\/i&gt; variant, pigment abnormalities, DPED, and HRF are relevant imaging biomarkers for conversion to late AMD. In clinical routine, an intensified monitoring of patients with a high-risk phenotypic profile may be suitable for the early detection of conversion to late AMD. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1159\/000507196","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,13]],"date-time":"2020-03-13T22:00:44Z","timestamp":1584136844000},"page":"444-452","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Major Predictive Factors for Progression of Early to Late Age-Related Macular 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