{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,10]],"date-time":"2026-09-10T11:29:59Z","timestamp":1789039799480,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"S. Karger AG","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770336000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/pages\/terms-and-conditions"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770336000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/pages\/terms-and-conditions"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Int Arch Allergy Immunol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Introduction: Postoperative recurrence remains a significant challenge in the management of chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), imposing a heavy burden on patients and healthcare systems. Existing prediction models often rely on invasive tissue sampling or limited clinical phenotype. This study aimed to construct a broad-spectrum, noninvasive nomogram by integrating clinical characteristics with a panel of serum inflammatory biomarkers to predict the risk of recurrence after endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Methods: A total of 312 patients with CRSwNP who underwent ESS at our center between January 2019 and October 2023 were retrospectively recruited. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 218) and a validation cohort (n = 94) at a 7:3 ratio. Clinical data and preoperative serum levels of inflammatory markers (eotaxin-1, periostin, IL-5, total IgE) were collected. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen optimal predictors. A nomogram was established based on multivariate logistic regression analysis. The model\u2019s performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: During a minimum of 2-year follow-up, recurrence occurred in 38.5% of the total cohort. LASSO and multivariate analyses identified five independent predictors: history of asthma (odds ratio [OR] = 3.45), revision surgery (OR = 2.12), Lund-Mackay score (OR = 1.15), serum eotaxin-1 level (OR = 1.02 per pg\/mL), and serum periostin level (OR = 1.04 per ng\/mL). The developed nomogram demonstrated robust discrimination, with a C-index of 0.892 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.851\u20130.933) in the training cohort and 0.865 (95% CI: 0.812\u20130.918) in the validation cohort. Internal validation showed an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.879. Calibration plots revealed excellent agreement between predicted and observed probabilities. DCA indicated that the nomogram provided substantial net clinical benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. Conclusion: We successfully developed a novel, high-discrimination nomogram incorporating clinical factors and serum biomarkers (eotaxin-1 and periostin). This tool offers a practical, noninvasive approach for clinicians to identify high-risk CRSwNP patients early, facilitating personalized postoperative management and potentially guiding the use of biological therapies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1159\/000550376","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T17:00:48Z","timestamp":1770397248000},"page":"1-9","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Development and Validation of a Nomogram Integrative of Clinical Characteristics and Serum Inflammatory Biomarkers for Predicting Postoperative Recurrence in Patients with Chronic Rhinosinusitis with Nasal Polyps"],"prefix":"10.1159","author":[{"given":"Jianbin","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"He","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"127","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4193\/Rhin20.600"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7759\/cureus.67910"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00016489.2024.2424962"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fcimb.2023.1104444"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/lary.27852"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4193\/Rhin20.601"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31881-1"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaip.2020.09.063"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000522624"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jpm12081251"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.alit.2014.12.006"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00405-022-07492-7"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/alr.21032"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/diagnostics13040715"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaci.2017.07.031"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jdv.17981"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/19458924251332546"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-29612-2"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(14)71116-7"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M14-0698"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4193\/Rhin17.045"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaci.2021.03.024"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaci.2008.07.008"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2021.722170"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4168\/aair.2016.8.6.491"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-08375-2"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/coa.13971"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.61409\/A04230241"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0267146"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/clt2.70043"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00016489.2024.2362776"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm13061699"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2500\/ajra.2015.29.4231"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/all.12644"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/RCT.0000000000001411"}],"container-title":["International Archives of Allergy and Immunology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1159\/000550376","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T17:00:48Z","timestamp":1770397248000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/article\/doi\/10.1159\/000550376"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]]},"references-count":35,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1159\/000550376","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"is-supplemented-by":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.6084\/m9.figshare.31017145","asserted-by":"subject"}]},"ISSN":["1018-2438","1423-0097"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1018-2438","type":"print"},{"value":"1423-0097","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]]}}}