{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,3]],"date-time":"2026-04-03T05:43:42Z","timestamp":1775195022417,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"S. Karger AG","issue":"9-10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,1]],"date-time":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672531200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/pages\/terms-and-conditions"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,1]],"date-time":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672531200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/pages\/terms-and-conditions"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Am J Nephrol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Introduction:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; Current prognostic models for chronic kidney disease (CKD) are complex and were designed to predict a single outcome. We aimed to develop and validate a simple and parsimonious prognostic model to predict cardio-kidney events and mortality. &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Methods:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; Patients from the CRIC Study (&lt;i&gt;n&lt;\/i&gt; = 3,718) were randomly divided into derivation (&lt;i&gt;n&lt;\/i&gt; = 2,478) and validation (&lt;i&gt;n&lt;\/i&gt; = 1,240) cohorts. Twenty-nine candidate variables were preselected. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed using stepwise selection for various cardio-kidney endpoints, namely, (i) the primary composite outcome of 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from baseline, end-stage renal disease, or cardiovascular (CV) mortality; (ii) hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) or CV mortality; (iii) 3-point major CV endpoints (3P-MACE); (iv) all-cause death. &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Results:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; During a median follow-up of 9 years, the primary outcome occurred in 977 patients of the derivation cohort and 501 patients of the validation cohort. Log-transformed N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), log-transformed high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), log-transformed albuminuria, and eGFR were the dominant predictors. The primary outcome risk score discriminated well (c-statistic = 0.83) with a proportion of events of 11.4% in the lowest tertile of risk and 91.5% in the highest tertile at 10 years. The risk model presented good discrimination for HHF or CV mortality, 3P-MACE, and all-cause death (c-statistics = 0.80, 0.75, and 0.75, respectively). The 4-variable risk model achieved similar c-statistics for all tested outcomes in the validation cohort. The discrimination of the 4-variable risk model was mostly superior to that of published models. &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Conclusion:&lt;\/i&gt;&lt;\/b&gt; The combination of NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, albuminuria, and eGFR in a single 4-variable model provides a unique individual prognostic assessment of multiple cardio-kidney outcomes in CKD. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1159\/000533223","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,11]],"date-time":"2023-10-11T21:03:05Z","timestamp":1697058185000},"page":"391-398","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["A 4-Variable Model to Predict Cardio-Kidney Events and Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study"],"prefix":"10.1159","volume":"54","author":[{"given":"Lu\u00eds","family":"Mendon\u00e7a","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Miguel","family":"Bigotte Vieira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o S\u00e9rgio","family":"Neves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Paulo","family":"Castro Chaves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Joao Pedro","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"127","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40620-022-01358-1"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/j.ajkd.2017.01.050"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/2054358118763809"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1681\/ASN.2021060747"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ekir.2022.01.1067"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MNH.0000000000000553"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2011.451"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.kint.2018.01.009"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.asn.0000070149.78399.ce"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2215\/CJN.00070109"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1681\/ASN.2014010108"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2215\/CJN.13121215"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2215\/CJN.03500412"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4154"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.111.964841"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12882-018-0951-0"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.nefro.2015.03.002"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2215\/CJN.01660216"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehp420"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/ATVBAHA.114.303465"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/j.ajkd.2011.05.020"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5603\/KP.2015.0243"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M14-0743"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehs163"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejhf.1359"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehab579"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(10)60674-5"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40620-020-00715-2"}],"container-title":["American Journal of Nephrology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/ajn\/article-pdf\/54\/9-10\/391\/4051721\/000533223.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/ajn\/article-pdf\/54\/9-10\/391\/4051721\/000533223.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,23]],"date-time":"2025-04-23T15:33:57Z","timestamp":1745422437000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/karger.com\/article\/doi\/10.1159\/000533223"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9-10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,27]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,28]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1159\/000533223","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"is-supplemented-by":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.6084\/m9.figshare.24086985","asserted-by":"subject"}]},"ISSN":["0250-8095","1421-9670"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0250-8095","type":"print"},{"value":"1421-9670","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023]]}}}