{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,4]],"date-time":"2026-11-04T14:30:46Z","timestamp":1793802646760,"version":"4.6.1"},"reference-count":8,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790812800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ahajournals.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Circ: Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>BACKGROUND:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Evidence regarding the use of a 6-month effectiveness end point for trials of atrial fibrillation ablation is limited. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between ablation effectiveness end point detection and follow-up duration, with the secondary goal of informing the design of clinical trials of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation ablation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>METHODS:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Patient-level data from 4 prospective studies were aggregated. Long-term effectiveness end points were calculated with (1) a 3-month blanking period and 12-month follow-up (current) and (2) a 2-month blanking period and 6-month follow-up (proposed). Sensitivity, specificity, and agreement were calculated for each study under the current and proposed end points. A linear approximation method was used to extrapolate the 6-month survival estimate to 12 months, and the predicted 12-month survival rates were compared with the actual 12-month survival rates. Using the linear approximation, a new performance goal was derived and compared against the 6-month survival of each study.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>RESULTS:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The comparative analysis between the current and proposed end points demonstrated concordances ranging from 83% to 92% and sensitivities ranging from 57% to 76% across the 4 recent clinical trials. The linear approximation method produced an estimated 12-month survival rate of the 4 pooled studies of 72.5%, compared with the true 12-month survival rate of 71.0% (\u22121.5% error). When compared against the true 12-month survival rate in each study individually, the estimated 12-month survival rate resulted in errors ranging from \u22123.6% to 0.3%. A new performance goal of 56.2% is proposed for trials using a 6-month end point.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>CONCLUSIONS:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The proposed end point of a 6-month follow-up duration, inclusive of a 2-month blanking period, demonstrated reasonable levels of agreement with the current 12-month effectiveness end point. Enabling historical comparison, a 12-month survival rate can be reliably extrapolated from a 6-month survival rate using linear approximation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1161\/circep.125.014773","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T09:00:27Z","timestamp":1789722027000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Incorporating a Shortened Long-Term Effectiveness End Point Into Catheter Ablation Trials: Statistical Properties and Implications"],"prefix":"10.1161","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8493-5123","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jason G.","family":"Andrade","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Vancouver General Hospital, Vancouver, Canada (J.G.A.)."},{"name":"Center for Cardiovascular Innovation, Vancouver, Canada (J.G.A.)."},{"name":"Department of Medicine, Montr\u00e9al Heart Institute, Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al, Montr\u00e9al, Canada (J.G.A.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Hynes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Biosense Webster, Inc., part of Johnson &amp; Johnson MedTech, Irvine, CA (S.H., F.J.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-6181-9877","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Farid","family":"Jamshidian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Biosense Webster, Inc., part of Johnson &amp; Johnson MedTech, Irvine, CA (S.H., F.J.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5487-0728","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Andrea","family":"Natale","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Texas Cardiac Arrhythmia Research Foundation, Austin, TX (A.N.)."},{"name":"Division of Cardiology, Department of Biomedicine and Prevention, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy (A.N.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2017.05.012"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2024.03.017"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.124.070333"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacep.2022.10.019"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jce.16524"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacep.2022.06.007"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.125.013971"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2025.05.075"}],"container-title":["Circulation: Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ahajournals.org\/doi\/full\/10.1161\/CIRCEP.125.014773","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,4]],"date-time":"2026-11-04T14:01:58Z","timestamp":1793800918000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ahajournals.org\/doi\/10.1161\/CIRCEP.125.014773"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"references-count":8,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1161\/CIRCEP.125.014773"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/circep.125.014773","relation":{},"ISSN":["1941-3149","1941-3084"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1941-3149","type":"print"},{"value":"1941-3084","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-12-12","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-24","order":1,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-13","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-18","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}