{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T11:06:09Z","timestamp":1788519969465,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":["www.ahajournals.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Circ: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>BACKGROUND:<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>METHODS:<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>\n              We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods\u2014first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              DS\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              -VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              DS\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              -VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy.\n            <\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>RESULTS:<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>\n              A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6\u201312), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              DS\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              -VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%\u201310.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%\u20137.4%];\n              <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">P<\/jats:italic>\n              &lt;0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              DS\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              -VASc model \u2013 competing risk model 3-year risk) was \u22121.3% (95% CI, \u22121.3% to \u22121.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%\u20135.0%).\n            <\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>CONCLUSIONS:<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>\n              VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              DS\n              <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n              -VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.\n            <\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1161\/circoutcomes.123.010269","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,25]],"date-time":"2024-03-25T09:00:29Z","timestamp":1711357229000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials"],"prefix":"10.1161","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8400-6888","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sachin J.","family":"Shah","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.J.S., D.E.S.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8390-0930","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Carl","family":"van Walraven","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology and Community Medicine, University of Ottawa, ON, Canada (C.v.W.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7963-6604","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sun Young","family":"Jeon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Medicine (S.Y.J., W.J.B., K.E.C., M.C.F.), University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3121-9526","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"John","family":"Boscardin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Medicine (S.Y.J., W.J.B., K.E.C., M.C.F.), University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA."},{"name":"Epidemiology and Biostatistics (W.J.B.), University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7976-7172","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"F.D. Richard","family":"Hobbs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK (F.D.R.H.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7377-335X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Stuart J.","family":"Connolly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada (S.C.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael D.","family":"Ezekowitz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA (M.E.)."},{"name":"Cardiovascular Medicine, Lankenau Institute for Medical Research, Wynnewood, PA (M.E.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kenneth E.","family":"Covinsky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Medicine (S.Y.J., W.J.B., K.E.C., M.C.F.), University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3362-1543","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Margaret C.","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Medicine (S.Y.J., W.J.B., K.E.C., M.C.F.), University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6145-4848","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniel E.","family":"Singer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.J.S., D.E.S.)."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000000041"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000000665"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehaa612"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","unstructured":"Atrial Fibrillation. 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