{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,8]],"date-time":"2026-11-08T08:09:55Z","timestamp":1794125395106,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"17","content-domain":{"domain":["www.ahajournals.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["JAHA"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">Although several risk schemes have been proposed to predict new\u2010onset atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical prediction models specific for Asian patients were limited. In the present study, we aimed to develop a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score) for AF prediction using the whole Taiwan population database with a long\u2010term follow\u2010up.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Methods and Results<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">Among 7\u00a0220\u00a0654 individuals aged \u226540\u00a0years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia identified from the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database, 438\u00a0930 incident AFs occurred after a 16\u2010year follow\u2010up. Clinical risk factors of AF were identified using Cox regression analysis and then combined into a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score). The Taiwan AF score included age, male sex, and important comorbidities (hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end\u2010stage renal disease, and alcoholism) and ranged from \u22122 to 15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Taiwan AF scores in the predictions of AF are 0.857 for the 1\u2010year follow\u2010up, 0.825 for the 5\u2010year follow\u2010up, 0.797 for the 10\u2010year follow\u2010up, and 0.756 for the 16\u2010year follow\u2010up. The annual risks of incident AF were 0.21%\/year, 1.31%\/year, and 3.37%\/year for the low\u2010risk (score \u22122 to 3), intermediate\u2010risk (score 4 to 9), and high\u2010risk (score \u226510) groups, respectively. Compared with low\u2010risk patients, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.78 (95% CI, 3.76\u20137.75) for the intermediate\u2010risk group and 8.94 (95% CI, 6.47\u201310.80) for the high\u2010risk group.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">We developed a clinical AF prediction model, the Taiwan AF score, among a large\u2010scale Asian cohort. The new score could help physicians to identify Asian patients at high risk of AF in whom more aggressive and frequent detections and screenings may be considered.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1161\/jaha.120.020194","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,28]],"date-time":"2021-08-28T09:06:22Z","timestamp":1630141582000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":33,"title":["Clinical Risk Score for the Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: Derivation in 7\u00a0220\u00a0654 Taiwan Patients With 438\u00a0930 Incident Atrial Fibrillations During a 16\u2010Year Follow\u2010Up"],"prefix":"10.1161","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6587-3094","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tze\u2010Fan","family":"Chao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiology Department of Medicine Taipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research CenterNational Yang Ming Chiao Tung University Taipei Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chern\u2010En","family":"Chiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiology Department of Medicine Taipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research CenterNational Yang Ming Chiao Tung University Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"General Clinical Research CenterTaipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8350-0232","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tzeng\u2010Ji","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Family Medicine Taipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8033-127X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u2010Nan","family":"Liao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiology Department of Medicine Taipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research CenterNational Yang Ming Chiao Tung University Taipei Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ta\u2010Chuan","family":"Tuan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiology Department of Medicine Taipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research CenterNational Yang Ming Chiao Tung University Taipei Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9085-0823","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shih\u2010Ann","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cardiology Department of Medicine Taipei Veterans General Hospital Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research CenterNational Yang Ming Chiao Tung University Taipei Taiwan"},{"name":"Cardiovascular CenterTaichung Veterans General Hospital Taichung Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chest.2017.10.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2013.03.017"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrcardio.2014.118"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.113.005119"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ahj.2018.04.017"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60443-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2010.08.049"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/JAHA.112.000102"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chest.2018.09.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehy837"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.117.031658"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","first-page":"157","article-title":"Accuracy of diabetes diagnosis in health insurance claims data in Taiwan","volume":"104","author":"Lin CC","year":"2005","unstructured":"Lin CC, Lai MS, Syu CY, Chang SC, Tseng FY. 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