{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T06:25:52Z","timestamp":1769581552096,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"14","content-domain":{"domain":["www.ahajournals.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["JAHA"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"jah310915-sec-0001\" xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">Identifying young adults at high risk of hypertension can improve blood pressure screening recommendations.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec id=\"jah310915-sec-0002\" xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">We developed models to predict incident hypertension using diverse contemporary cohorts of young adults aged 18 to 39\u2009years from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (derivation and internal validation) and 3 cohort studies (CARDIA [Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults], FHS [Framingham Heart Study], HCHS\/SOL [Hispanic Community Health Study\/Study of Latinos]; external validation). Predictors included age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, smoking, social determinants of health, comorbidities, high\u2010 and low\u2010density lipoprotein cholesterol, and pregnancy\u2010related hypertensive disorders. We used Cox elastic net and random survival forests to develop sex\u2010specific models and compared their performance to 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force blood pressure screening recommendations.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec id=\"jah310915-sec-0003\" xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">Among 355\u2009524 adults from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (mean age, 29\u2009years; mean systolic\/diastolic blood pressure, 115\/70\u2009mm\u2009Hg), 11.7% developed hypertension in a median of 5.4\u2009years. External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (Harrell's C\u2010statistic, 0.76 and 0.82; Integrated Brier Score, 0.04 and 0.02 for men and women, respectively). Compared with US Preventive Services Task Force, a 10\u2010year risk for hypertension of \u226515% in the external cohort using the new model showed similar sensitivity (men, 0.90 versus 0.89; women, 0.81 versus 0.81) and moderate improvement in specificity (men, 0.35 versus 0.25; women, 0.66 versus 0.44). Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the prediction model estimated 28.5 million US young adults being at high risk of hypertension compared with 45.3 million by the US Preventive Services Task Force.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec id=\"jah310915-sec-0004\" xml:lang=\"en\">\n            <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p xml:lang=\"en\">Compared with the US Preventive Services Task Force, the hypertension risk prediction model may be a more efficient tool to identify high\u2010risk young adults for early intervention.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1161\/jaha.124.040769","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,14]],"date-time":"2025-07-14T10:19:39Z","timestamp":1752488379000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/crossmarkpolicy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Development and Validation of an Incident Hypertension Risk Prediction Model for Young Adults"],"prefix":"10.1161","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3161-5732","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jaejin","family":"An","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kaiser Permanente Southern California","place":["Pasadena, USA"]},{"name":"Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. 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