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Conditional probabilities for the evidence given each model are estimated from historical sources and manually assigned using a scale of five probabilities ranging from strongly consistent to strongly inconsistent. Alternative or competing theories are defined for each model based on preceding models in the series. Prior probabilities are also set based on the posterior probabilities of these earlier models. A dramatic increase in posterior probability is seen for the final double helix model compared to earlier models in the series, which is interpreted as a form of \u201cBayesian surprise\u201d leading to the sense that a \u201cdiscovery\u201d was made. Implications for theory choice in the history of science are discussed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1162\/qss_a_00233","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,5]],"date-time":"2023-01-05T13:48:49Z","timestamp":1672926529000},"page":"209-228","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/mitpressjournals.corrections.policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Bayesian history of science: The case of Watson and Crick and the structure of DNA"],"prefix":"10.1162","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3479-6740","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Henry","family":"Small","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"SciTech Strategies Inc., Berwyn, PA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"281","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2023040615403611300_","first-page":"66","article-title":"X-ray studies of nucleic acids","volume":"1","author":"Astbury","year":"1947","journal-title":"Symposia of the Society of Experimental Biology"},{"issue":"5","key":"2023040615403611300_","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"649","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neunet.2009.12.007","article-title":"Of bits and wows: A Bayesian theory of surprise with applications to attention","volume":"23","author":"Baldi","year":"2010","journal-title":"Neural Networks"},{"issue":"4202","key":"2023040615403611300_","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"756","DOI":"10.1038\/165756b0","article-title":"Composition of human desoxypentose nucleic acid","volume":"165","author":"Chargaff","year":"1950","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2023040615403611300_","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"581","DOI":"10.1107\/S0365110X52001635","article-title":"The structure of synthetic polypeptides. 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