{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T04:00:58Z","timestamp":1772164858660,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"MIT Press","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,6]],"date-time":"2024-05-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714953600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":126,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["direct.mit.edu"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Statistical modeling of scientific productivity and impact provides insights into bibliometric measures used also to quantify differences between individual scholars. The Q model decomposes the log-transformed impact of a published paper into a researcher capacity parameter and a random luck parameter. These two parameters are then modeled together with the log-transformed number of published papers (i.e., an indicator of productivity) by means of a trivariate normal distribution. In this work we propose a formulation of the Q model that can be estimated as a structural equation model. The Q model as a structural equation model allows us to quantify the reliability of researchers\u2019 Q parameter estimates. It can be extended to incorporate person covariates and multivariate extensions of the Q model could also be estimated. We empirically illustrate our approach to estimate the Q model and also provide openly available code for R and Mplus.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1162\/qss_a_00313","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,6]],"date-time":"2024-05-06T14:13:12Z","timestamp":1715004792000},"page":"668-680","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/mitpressjournals.corrections.policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Latent variable modeling of scientific impact: Estimation of the\n                    <i>Q<\/i>\n                    model parameters with structural equation models"],"prefix":"10.1162","volume":"5","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9755-7304","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boris","family":"Forthmann","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Psychology, University of M\u00fcnster, M\u00fcnster, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9724-2441","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Steffen","family":"Nestler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Psychology, University of M\u00fcnster, M\u00fcnster, Germany"}]}],"member":"281","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024093020300798100_bib1","article-title":"Full information estimation in the presence of incomplete data","volume-title":"Advanced structural equation modeling","author":"Arbuckle","year":"1996"},{"key":"2024093020300798100_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118619179","volume-title":"Structural equations with latent variables","author":"Bollen","year":"1989"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024093020300798100_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1135","DOI":"10.3758\/s13428-012-0217-x","article-title":"Fitting a Thurstonian IRT model to forced-choice data using Mplus","volume":"44","author":"Brown","year":"2012","journal-title":"Behavior Research Methods"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annemergmed.2010.07.027","article-title":"Longitudinal trends in the performance of scientific peer reviewers","volume":"57","author":"Callaham","year":"2011","journal-title":"Annals of Emergency Medicine"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024093020300798100_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"529","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327906mbr3804_5","article-title":"Have multilevel models been structural equation models all along?","volume":"38","author":"Curran","year":"2003","journal-title":"Multivariate Behavioral Research"},{"issue":"3","key":"2024093020300798100_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1080\/00461520.2023.2291577","article-title":"Using a model of domain learning to understand the development of creativity","volume":"59","author":"Dumas","year":"2024","journal-title":"Educational Psychologist"},{"issue":"1","key":"2024093020300798100_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1196\/annals.1393.001","article-title":"Toward a science of exceptional achievement: Attaining superior performance through deliberate practice","volume":"1172","author":"Ericsson","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"5","key":"2024093020300798100_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"762","DOI":"10.1177\/0013164417719308","article-title":"Assessing the quality and appropriateness of factor solutions and factor score estimates in exploratory item factor analysis","volume":"78","author":"Ferrando","year":"2018","journal-title":"Educational and Psychological Measurement"},{"issue":"8","key":"2024093020300798100_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4753","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-023-04756-9","article-title":"Researcher capacity estimation based on the Q model: A generalized linear mixed model perspective","volume":"128","author":"Forthmann","year":"2023","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"324","DOI":"10.1037\/aca0000294","article-title":"Testing equal odds in creativity research","volume":"15","author":"Forthmann","year":"2021","journal-title":"Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1145\/355780.355783","article-title":"The PORT mathematical subroutine library","volume":"4","author":"Fox","year":"1978","journal-title":"ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software"},{"issue":"4060","key":"2024093020300798100_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1126\/science.178.4060.471","article-title":"Citation analysis as a tool in journal evaluation: Journals can be ranked by frequency and impact of citations for science policy studies","volume":"178","author":"Garfield","year":"1972","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024093020300798100_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"621","DOI":"10.1080\/10705511.2017.1402334","article-title":"MplusAutomation: An R package for facilitating large-scale latent variable analyses in Mplus","volume":"25","author":"Hallquist","year":"2018","journal-title":"Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal"},{"key":"2024093020300798100_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1109\/ICEC.1996.542381","article-title":"Adapting arbitrary normal mutation distributions in evolution strategies: The covariance matrix adaptation","volume-title":"Proceedings of IEEE international conference on evolutionary computation","author":"Hansen","year":"1996"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1081","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-016-2211-z","article-title":"Authors and their citations: A point of view","volume":"110","author":"Hartley","year":"2017","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024093020300798100_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1037\/aca0000021","article-title":"Revisiting the 10-year rule for composers from the Great American Songbook: On the validity of two measures of creative production","volume":"9","author":"Hass","year":"2015","journal-title":"Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts"},{"issue":"5","key":"2024093020300798100_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"896","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.39.5.896","article-title":"Making it in academic psychology: Demographic and personality correlates of attainment","volume":"39","author":"Helmreich","year":"1980","journal-title":"Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"},{"issue":"46","key":"2024093020300798100_bib18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16569","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0507655102","article-title":"An index to quantify an individual\u2019s scientific research output","volume":"102","author":"Hirsch","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"1","key":"2024093020300798100_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-020-00227-w","article-title":"Success and luck in creative careers","volume":"9","author":"Janosov","year":"2020","journal-title":"EPJ Data Science"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.2190\/EM.29.2.a","article-title":"Age and aesthetic significance in classical music: A multi-level reanalysis of Halsey\u2019s (1976) ratings","volume":"29","author":"Kozbelt","year":"2011","journal-title":"Empirical Studies of the Arts"},{"issue":"6","key":"2024093020300798100_bib21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3543","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-022-04363-0","article-title":"Academic vs. biological age in research on academic careers: A large-scale study with implications for scientifically developing systems","volume":"127","author":"Kwiek","year":"2022","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"7714","key":"2024093020300798100_bib233","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"396","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0315-8","article-title":"Hot streaks in artistic, cultural, and scientific careers","volume":"559","author":"Liu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2024093020300798100_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b15851","volume-title":"Foundations of factor analysis","author":"Mulaik","year":"2010","edition":"2nd ed"},{"key":"2024093020300798100_bib23","volume-title":"Mplus user\u2019s guide","author":"Muth\u00e9n","year":"1998"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024093020300798100_bib24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1282","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2018.10.006","article-title":"The bibliometric quotient (BQ), or how to measure a researcher\u2019s performance capacity: A Bayesian Poisson Rasch model","volume":"12","author":"Mutz","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"643","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2019.03.007","article-title":"How to consider fractional counting and field normalization in the statistical modeling of bibliometric data: A multilevel Poisson regression approach","volume":"13","author":"Mutz","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1080\/10705511.2023.2212865","article-title":"Univariate autoregressive structural equation models as mixed-effects models","volume":"31","author":"Nestler","year":"2024","journal-title":"Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal"},{"issue":"1","key":"2024093020300798100_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4880","DOI":"10.1038\/srep04880","article-title":"Author impact factor: Tracking the dynamics of individual scientific impact","volume":"4","author":"Pan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024093020300798100_bib28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"636","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.74.4.636","article-title":"Causal models of publishing productivity in psychology","volume":"74","author":"Rodgers","year":"1989","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Psychology"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v048.i02","article-title":"lavaan: An R package for structural equation modeling","volume":"48","author":"Rosseel","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Statistical Software"},{"issue":"2","key":"2024093020300798100_bib30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.3390\/psych3020017","article-title":"Evaluating the observed log-likelihood function in two-level structural equation modeling with missing data: From formulas to R code","volume":"3","author":"Rosseel","year":"2021","journal-title":"Psych"},{"key":"2024093020300798100_bib31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139165358","volume-title":"Creativity in science: Chance, logic, genius, and zeitgeist","author":"Simonton","year":"2004"},{"issue":"6312","key":"2024093020300798100_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"aaf5239","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaf5239","article-title":"Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact","volume":"354","author":"Sinatra","year":"2016","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"2024093020300798100_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1037\/1082-989X.9.1.116","article-title":"Improving measurement precision of test batteries using multidimensional item response models","volume":"9","author":"Wang","year":"2004","journal-title":"Psychological Methods"}],"container-title":["Quantitative Science Studies"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/direct.mit.edu\/qss\/article-pdf\/5\/3\/668\/2472659\/qss_a_00313.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/direct.mit.edu\/qss\/article-pdf\/5\/3\/668\/2472659\/qss_a_00313.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,30]],"date-time":"2024-09-30T16:30:14Z","timestamp":1727713814000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/direct.mit.edu\/qss\/article\/5\/3\/668\/120938\/Latent-variable-modeling-of-scientific-impact"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/qss_a_00313","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1162\/QSS_A_00313\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1162\/QSS_A_00313\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1162\/QSS_A_00313\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1162\/QSS_A_00313\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1162\/QSS_A_00313\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1162\/QSS_A_00313\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2641-3337"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2641-3337","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024]]}}}