{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T19:28:11Z","timestamp":1790623691656,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,11,1]],"date-time":"2014-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1414800000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,11,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Rationale<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The lifetime risk of tuberculosis (TB) for infected contacts is often mentioned to be 5\u201310%, but these estimates are based on studies conducted decades ago, and thus may not reflect current epidemiologic conditions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To estimate the risk of TB among contacts with evidence of infection and to compare this with estimates often stated in the literature.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A retrospective cohort study was performed using records on contacts of pulmonary TB patients at the Public Health Service Amsterdam, 2002\u20132011. The Public Health Service Amsterdam TB electronic registration system identified TB cases during follow-up until October 2012; these were defined as coprevalent if diagnosed less than or equal to 180 days and incident if diagnosed greater than 180 days after TB diagnosis of index patient. Cumulative TB risk was estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Measurements and Main Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Of 9,332 contacts of pulmonary TB patients, 4,774 were screened for latent TB infection (LTBI) of whom 739 (16%) had evidence of infection. Among these the 5-year Kaplan-Meier TB cumulative risk was 9.5% (95% confidence interval, 7.5\u201311.9). This varied by age: 33.3% of 36 contacts aged less than 5 years, 19.1% of 84 contacts aged 5\u201314 years, and 6.7% of 619 contacts aged greater than or equal to 15 years (log rank, P &amp;lt; 0.001). Of 739 contacts with evidence of infection, 57 had coprevalent TB and 14 developed incident TB. Of patients without coprevalent TB but with LTBI diagnosis, 45% received preventive therapy. Five-year risk of incident TB was 2.4% (95% confidence interval, 1.2\u20134.7) among contacts with LTBI who did not start preventive therapy.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Five-year risk of TB among contacts with evidence of infection was higher compared with older estimates, and differed considerably by age. Incidence of TB among contacts with LTBI was low, suggesting limited impact may be expected of expanding preventive therapy.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1164\/rccm.201406-1159oc","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,29]],"date-time":"2014-09-29T15:34:59Z","timestamp":1412004899000},"page":"1044-1052","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":183,"title":["Risk of Tuberculosis after Recent Exposure. A 10-Year Follow-up Study of Contacts in Amsterdam"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"190","author":[{"given":"Rosa","family":"Sloot","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, and"},{"name":"Center for Infections and Immunity Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maarten F.","family":"Schim van der Loeff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infections and Immunity Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service, Amsterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter M.","family":"Kouw","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service, Amsterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martien W.","family":"Borgdorff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, and"},{"name":"Center for Infections and Immunity Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service, Amsterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,11,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib1","first-page":"S221","article-title":"Targeted tuberculin and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection","volume":"161","author":"American Thoracic Society","year":"2000","journal-title":"Am J Respir Crit Care Med"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib2","first-page":"117","article-title":"The relationship between the risk of tuberculous infection and the risk of developing infectious tuberculosis","volume":"60","author":"Styblo","year":"1985","journal-title":"Bull Int Union Tuberc Lung Dis"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1002\/1099-1050(200007)9:5<411::AID-HEC524>3.0.CO;2-9","article-title":"The cost-effectiveness of evidence-based guidelines and practice for screening and prevention of tuberculosis","volume":"9","author":"Macintyre","year":"2000","journal-title":"Health Econ"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1086\/380966","article-title":"Short-course rifampin and pyrazinamide compared with isoniazid for latent tuberculosis infection: a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a multicenter clinical trial","volume":"38","author":"Jasmer","year":"2004","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1051","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-127-12-199712150-00001","article-title":"Monitored isoniazid prophylaxis for low-risk tuberculin reactors older than 35 years of age: a risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis","volume":"127","author":"Salpeter","year":"1997","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"647","DOI":"10.1007\/s10096-012-1788-2","article-title":"Cost-effectiveness of rifampin for 4 months and isoniazid for 9 months in the treatment of tuberculosis infection","volume":"32","author":"Pina","year":"2013","journal-title":"Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib7","first-page":"28","article-title":"Controlled chemoprophylaxis trials in tuberculosis: a general review","volume":"26","author":"Ferebee","year":"1970","journal-title":"Bibl Tuberc"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib8","first-page":"827","article-title":"Isoniazid prophylaxis among Alaskan Eskimos: a final report of the bethel isoniazid studies","volume":"119","author":"Comstock","year":"1979","journal-title":"Am Rev Respir Dis"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a121593","article-title":"The prognosis of a positive tuberculin reaction in childhood and adolescence","volume":"99","author":"Comstock","year":"1974","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a112105","article-title":"Frost revisited: the modern epidemiology of tuberculosis","volume":"101","author":"Comstock","year":"1975","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026032100292439100_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1016\/S0041-3879(82)80013-5","article-title":"The development of clinical tuberculosis following infection with tubercle bacilli. 1. 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