{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T11:50:05Z","timestamp":1774266605308,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"American Meteorological Society","issue":"10","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>A new ensemble of simulations from the Earth System configuration of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), is used to evaluate the response to historical and projected future greenhouse gas forcings that follow Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In addition to the projected changes during the twenty-first century, extended simulations to the year 2300 allow an investigation into inertia in the climate system post-2100 that may occur even if atmospheric CO2 concentrations have stabilized. Projections of temperature, precipitation, sea level, permafrost, heat waves, and compatible carbon emissions are analyzed. The low emissions scenario RCP2.6 is the only scenario considered here that is approximately consistent with a 2\u00b0C global warming limit, though there are regions where local changes in temperature are projected to considerably exceed 2\u00b0C, particularly over northern high-latitude areas. An aggressive mitigation approach, represented here by RCP2.6, could contribute to avoiding the larger-magnitude future climate changes projected under higher emissions scenarios. Despite these benefits, changes should still be expected under an aggressive mitigation pathway and may require adaptation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1175\/jcli-d-12-00577.1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,11,13]],"date-time":"2012-11-13T09:03:42Z","timestamp":1352797422000},"page":"3275-3284","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["Response of the HadGEM2 Earth System Model to Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pathways to the Year 2300*"],"prefix":"10.1175","volume":"26","author":[{"given":"John","family":"Caesar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Erika","family":"Palin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Spencer","family":"Liddicoat","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Lowe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eleanor","family":"Burke","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anne","family":"Pardaens","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Sanderson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ron","family":"Kahana","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"12","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L09712","DOI":"10.1029\/2012GL051607","article-title":"Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models","volume":"39","author":"Andrews","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L10702","DOI":"10.1029\/2012GL051942","article-title":"Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing","volume":"39","author":"Andrews","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L05805","DOI":"10.1029\/2010GL046270","article-title":"Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases","volume":"38","author":"Arora","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3053","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00290.1","article-title":"Climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, version 4","volume":"25","author":"Bitz","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Climate"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L17703","DOI":"10.1029\/2010GL043898","article-title":"Do global warming targets limit heatwave risk?","volume":"37","author":"Clark","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1051","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-4-1051-2011","article-title":"Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model\u2014HadGEM2","volume":"4","author":"Collins","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"773","DOI":"10.5194\/tc-5-773-2011","article-title":"Simulation of permafrost and seasonal thaw depth in the JULES land surface scheme","volume":"5","author":"Dankers","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cryosphere"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"299","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-008-9441-x","article-title":"Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: A critical review of the literature","volume":"92","author":"Gosling","year":"2009","journal-title":"Climatic Change"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5686","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3990.1","article-title":"Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming","volume":"19","author":"Held","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Climate"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1975","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-011-1005-5","article-title":"Climate change under aggressive mitigation: The ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment","volume":"37","author":"Johns","year":"2011","journal-title":"Climate Dyn."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"543","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-4-543-2011","article-title":"The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations","volume":"4","author":"Jones","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00228.1","article-title":"Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 earth system models","author":"Koven","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Climate"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-007-0278-1","article-title":"Incorporating organic soil into a global climate model","volume":"30","author":"Lawrence","year":"2008","journal-title":"Climate Dyn."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00569.1","article-title":"CO2 emissions determined by HadGEM2-ES to be compatible with the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and their extensions","author":"Liddicoat","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Climate"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib15","author":"Lowe","year":"2006"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1029\/2009EO210001","article-title":"New study for climate modeling, analyses, and scenarios","volume":"90","author":"Lowe","year":"2009","journal-title":"Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"723","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-4-723-2011","article-title":"The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model Climate configurations","volume":"4","author":"Martin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib18","author":"Meehl","year":"2007"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3661","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00240.1","article-title":"Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4","volume":"25","author":"Meehl","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Climate"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1158","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08017","article-title":"Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2\u00b0C","volume":"458","author":"Meinshausen","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1026035305597","article-title":"Pattern scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates","volume":"60","author":"Mitchell","year":"2003","journal-title":"Climatic Change"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D08101","DOI":"10.1029\/2011JD017187","article-title":"Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset","volume":"117","author":"Morice","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08823","article-title":"The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment","volume":"463","author":"Moss","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib24","author":"Naki\u0107enovi\u0107","year":"2000"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L12604","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL047678","article-title":"Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions","volume":"38","author":"Pardaens","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"232","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1467","article-title":"Climate modelling: IPCC gazes into the future","volume":"2","author":"Raper","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat. Climate Change"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"248","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1385","article-title":"Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates","volume":"2","author":"Rogelj","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat. Climate Change"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"701","DOI":"10.1641\/B580807","article-title":"Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: Implications for the global carbon cycle","volume":"58","author":"Schuur","year":"2008","journal-title":"Bioscience"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"485","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-11-00094.1","article-title":"An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design","volume":"93","author":"Taylor","year":"2012","journal-title":"Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib30","unstructured":"UNFCCC, 2011: Establishment of an ad hoc working group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. Doc. FCCC\/CP\/2011\/L.10, 2 pp. [Available online at http:\/\/unfccc.int\/resource\/docs\/2011\/cop17\/eng\/l10.pdf.]"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0152-3","article-title":"RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2\u00b0C","volume":"109","author":"van Vuuren","year":"2011","journal-title":"Climatic Change"},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"206","DOI":"10.1016\/j.proenv.2011.05.022","article-title":"Carbon dioxide emission scenarios: Limitations of the fossil fuel resource","volume":"6","author":"Vernon","year":"2011","journal-title":"Procedia Environ. Sci."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L08703","DOI":"10.1029\/2008GL037074","article-title":"How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation?","volume":"36","author":"Washington","year":"2009","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L12705","DOI":"10.1029\/2010GL043730","article-title":"Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO2 rampdown","volume":"37","author":"Wu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2020061315251190600_bib35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L17709","DOI":"10.1029\/2012GL052947","article-title":"Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models","volume":"39","author":"Yin","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."}],"container-title":["Journal of Climate"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/jcli\/article-pdf\/26\/10\/3275\/4007237\/jcli-d-12-00577_1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"http:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/jcli\/article-pdf\/26\/10\/3275\/4007237\/jcli-d-12-00577_1.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,7]],"date-time":"2020-12-07T22:51:40Z","timestamp":1607381500000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/doi\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00577.1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,8]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,15]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/jcli-d-12-00577.1","relation":{},"ISSN":["0894-8755","1520-0442"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0894-8755","type":"print"},{"value":"1520-0442","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,8]]}}}