{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T15:51:11Z","timestamp":1784303471496,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,1]],"date-time":"2006-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1154390400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Journal of Conflict Resolution"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In the literature on civil war onset, several empirical results are not robust or replicable across studies. Studies use different definitions of civil war and analyze different time periods, so readers cannot easily determine if differences in empirical results are due to those factors or if most empirical results are just not robust. The authors apply a methodology for organized specification tests to check the robustness of empirical results. They isolate causes of variation in empirical results by using the same definition of civil war and analyzing the same time period while systematically exploring the sensitivity of eighty-eight variables used to explain civil war in the literature. Several relationships with the onset of civil wars prove robust: large population and low income levels, low rates of economic growth, recent political instability and inconsistent democratic institutions, small military establishments and rough terrain, and war-prone and undemocratic neighbors. Variables representing ethnic difference in the population are robust only in relation to lower level armed conflict.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002706289303","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,7,13]],"date-time":"2006-07-13T13:07:40Z","timestamp":1152796060000},"page":"508-535","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":743,"title":["Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"50","author":[{"given":"H\u00e5vard","family":"Hegre","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas","family":"Sambanis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Political Science Department, Yale University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.polisci.5.112801.080943"},{"key":"atypb2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w6009"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2991857"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002702046001005"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07388940500339183"},{"key":"atypb6","volume-title":"Breaking the conflict trap: Civil War and development policy","author":"Collier, Paul","year":"2003"},{"key":"atypb7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oep\/gpf064"},{"key":"atypb8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355300555466"},{"key":"atypb9","volume-title":"\u201cGlobalization, Territoriality and Conflict\u201d conference","author":"Elbadawi, Ibrahim"},{"key":"atypb10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002702046003001"},{"key":"atypb11","volume-title":"State failure task force report: Phase II findings","author":"Esty, Daniel C.","year":"1998"},{"key":"atypb12","volume-title":"Working papers state failure task force report","author":"Esty, Daniel C.","year":"1995"},{"key":"atypb13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691219752-009"},{"key":"atypb14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1024419522867"},{"key":"atypb15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0003055403000534"},{"key":"atypb16","volume-title":"Annual surveys of freedom ratings 1972\u201373 to 2000\u201301","author":"Freedom House","year":"2002"},{"issue":"4","key":"atypb17","volume":"50","author":"Gates, Scott","year":"2006","journal-title":"American Journal of Political Science"},{"key":"atypb18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3998\/mpub.17068"},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343302039005007"},{"key":"atypb20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/20049729"},{"key":"atypb21","unstructured":"Gurr, Ted Robert, and Keith Jaggers. 2000. Polity98 project: Regime characteristics, 1800\u20131998. http:\/\/www.bsos.umd.edu\/cidcm\/polity."},{"key":"atypb22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/019924751X.001.0001"},{"key":"atypb23","volume-title":"44th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association","author":"Hegre, H\u00e5vard"},{"key":"atypb24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0003055401000119"},{"key":"atypb25","first-page":"271","volume-title":"Globalization and armed conflict","author":"Hegre, H\u00e5vard","year":"2003"},{"key":"atypb26","first-page":"308","volume":"75","author":"Leamer, Edward E.","year":"1985","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"atypb27","first-page":"942","volume":"82","author":"Levine, Ross","year":"1992","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"atypb28","volume-title":"Democracy in plural societies: A comparative exploration","author":"Lijphart, Arend","year":"1977"},{"key":"atypb29","volume-title":"Polity IV project: Codebook and data files","author":"Marshall, Monty","year":"2000"},{"key":"atypb30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2946696"},{"key":"atypb31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/421174"},{"key":"atypb32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002702046001006"},{"key":"atypb33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07388940500339209"},{"key":"atypb34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511804946"},{"key":"atypb35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343397034004002"},{"key":"atypb36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10242690214332"},{"key":"atypb37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002705277519"},{"key":"atypb38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343304043773"},{"key":"atypb39","first-page":"178","volume":"87","author":"Sala-i-Martin","year":"1997","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"atypb40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0043887100020074"},{"key":"atypb41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002701045003001"},{"key":"atypb42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10242690210976"},{"key":"atypb43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002704269355"},{"key":"atypb44","first-page":"259","volume":"2","author":"Sambanis, Nicholas","year":"2004","journal-title":"Perspectives on Politics"},{"key":"atypb45","first-page":"165","volume-title":"Brookings Trade Forum 2004","author":"Sambanis, Nicholas","year":"2005"},{"key":"atypb46","volume-title":"World handbook of political and social indicators","author":"Taylor, Charles Lewis","year":"1972","edition":"3"},{"key":"atypb47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343399036001004"},{"key":"atypb48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343300037002008","volume":"37","author":"Vanhanen, Tatu","year":"2000","journal-title":"Journal of Peace Research"},{"key":"atypb49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/0-8213-4553-2"}],"container-title":["Journal of Conflict Resolution"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0022002706289303","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0022002706289303","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T20:38:55Z","timestamp":1777495135000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0022002706289303"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0022002706289303"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0022002706289303","relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-0027","1552-8766"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-0027","type":"print"},{"value":"1552-8766","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]}}}