{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T06:44:41Z","timestamp":1788245081000,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1_suppl","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,1]],"date-time":"2020-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1593561600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004856","name":"New York State Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004856","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Public Health Rep"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders\u2019 rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain &gt;750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain &gt;750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE\u2019s multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/0033354920935069","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,31]],"date-time":"2020-07-31T10:50:45Z","timestamp":1596192645000},"page":"158S-171S","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"135","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2607-8933","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Erika G.","family":"Martin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Administration and Policy, University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA"},{"name":"Center for Collaborative HIV Research in Practice and Policy, Albany, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roderick H.","family":"MacDonald","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Integrated Science, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel E.","family":"Gordon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AIDS Institute, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carol-Ann","family":"Swain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AIDS Institute, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Travis","family":"O\u2019Donnell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AIDS Institute, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Helmeset","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AIDS Institute, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adenantera","family":"Dwicaksono","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Administration and Policy, University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA"},{"name":"School of Architecture, Planning, and Policy Development, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7100-0791","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"James M.","family":"Tesoriero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Collaborative HIV Research in Practice and Policy, Albany, NY, USA"},{"name":"AIDS Institute, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0033354920935069","unstructured":"New York State Department of Health. 2015 blueprint for achieving the goal set forth by Governor Cuomo to end the epidemic in New York State by the end of 2020. Accessed March 17, 2019. https:\/\/www.health.ny.gov\/diseases\/aids\/ending_the_epidemic\/docs\/blueprint.pdf"},{"key":"bibr2-0033354920935069","unstructured":"The White House. National HIV\/AIDS Strategy. Accessed April 27, 2020. https:\/\/www.hiv.gov\/federal-response\/national-hiv-aids-strategy\/strategy-history"},{"key":"bibr3-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.qai.0000151079.33935.79"},{"key":"bibr4-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1105243"},{"key":"bibr5-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2016.5148"},{"key":"bibr6-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-3018(17)30183-2"},{"key":"bibr7-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)70847-3"},{"key":"bibr8-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2015.4683"},{"key":"bibr9-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)00056-2"},{"key":"bibr10-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2015.302905"},{"key":"bibr11-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10461-007-9246-3"},{"key":"bibr12-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X12454578"},{"key":"bibr13-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciz1015"},{"key":"bibr14-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10461-019-02442-7"},{"key":"bibr15-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002312"},{"key":"bibr16-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-156-8-201204170-00001"},{"key":"bibr17-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/PHH.0000000000000717"},{"key":"bibr18-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-3018(16)00007-2"},{"key":"bibr19-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268818003497"},{"key":"bibr20-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001907"},{"key":"bibr21-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0154893"},{"key":"bibr22-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.25068"},{"key":"bibr23-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.25205"},{"key":"bibr24-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.25011"},{"key":"bibr25-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0000000000002290"},{"key":"bibr26-0033354920935069","volume-title":"Industrial Dynamics","author":"Forrester JW","year":"1961"},{"key":"bibr27-0033354920935069","volume-title":"Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World","author":"Sterman JD","year":"2000"},{"key":"bibr28-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.1496"},{"key":"bibr29-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001"},{"key":"bibr30-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/pam.21797"},{"key":"bibr31-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0000000000000395"},{"key":"bibr32-0033354920935069","unstructured":"New York State Department of Health, Bureau of HIV\/AIDS Epidemiology, AIDS Institute. New York State HIV\/AIDS surveillance annual report for persons diagnosed through December 2016. 2017. Accessed March 17, 2019. https:\/\/www.health.ny.gov\/diseases\/aids\/general\/statistics\/annual"},{"issue":"10","key":"bibr33-0033354920935069","first-page":"1","volume":"57","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2008","journal-title":"MMWR Recomm Rep"},{"key":"bibr34-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1524-4733.2010.00763.x"},{"key":"bibr35-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.322.7297.1290"},{"key":"bibr36-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0000000000000462"},{"key":"bibr37-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1011205"},{"key":"bibr38-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/PHH.0000000000000483"},{"key":"bibr39-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw223"},{"key":"bibr40-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jit150"},{"key":"bibr41-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1108524"},{"key":"bibr42-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0b013e31828ece33"},{"key":"bibr43-0033354920935069","unstructured":"Governor Cuomo announces all HIV-positive individuals in New York City to become eligible for housing, transportation and nutritional support [news release]. New York State; June 23, 2016. https:\/\/www.governor.ny.gov\/news\/governor-cuomo-announces-all-hiv-positive-individuals-new-york-city-become-eligible-housing"},{"key":"bibr44-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0000000000002200"},{"key":"bibr45-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/cix940"},{"key":"bibr46-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/2325958219852122"},{"key":"bibr47-0033354920935069","volume-title":"Monitoring HIV Care in the United States","author":"Institute of Medicine","year":"2012"},{"key":"bibr48-0033354920935069","unstructured":"New York State Department of Health. HIV-positive adults in care in New York State, Medical Monitoring Project, 2009-2014. 2017. Accessed March 17, 2019. https:\/\/www.health.ny.gov\/diseases\/aids\/general\/statistics\/docs\/medical_monitoring_project.pdf"},{"key":"bibr49-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/orsc.13.4.442.2953"},{"key":"bibr50-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/orsc.1040.0094"},{"key":"bibr51-0033354920935069","unstructured":"New York State Department of Health, AIDS Institute. HIV care in New York State, 2016: linkage to care and viral suppression among persons residing in New York State. Updated 2017. Accessed March 17, 2019. https:\/\/www.health.ny.gov\/diseases\/aids\/general\/statistics\/cascade_reports\/docs\/linkage_retention_2016.pdf"},{"key":"bibr52-0033354920935069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.1070.0787"},{"key":"bibr53-0033354920935069","first-page":"1","volume":"30","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2019","journal-title":"HIV Surveill Rep"}],"container-title":["Public Health Reports\u00ae"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0033354920935069","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/0033354920935069","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0033354920935069","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T09:36:13Z","timestamp":1777628173000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0033354920935069"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,7]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1_suppl","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,7]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0033354920935069"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0033354920935069","relation":{},"ISSN":["0033-3549","1468-2877"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0033-3549","type":"print"},{"value":"1468-2877","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,7]]}}}