{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T13:43:35Z","timestamp":1777902215240,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,22]],"date-time":"2011-06-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1308700800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["SIMULATION"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Large capital intensive projects, such as those in the mineral resource industry, are often associated with diverse sources of both endogenous and exogenous risks and uncertainties. These risks can greatly influence the project profitability. Having the ability to plan for these uncertainties is increasingly recognized as critical to long-term mining project success. In the mining industry in particular, the relationships between input variables that are controllable, and those that are not, and the physical and economic outcomes are complex and often nonlinear. The value of managerial flexibility is assessed using data on prices, costs, discount rates, grades, ore extraction, and metal output. Monte Carlo simulation of the mean reversion process is used to forecast revenue data based on an initial metal price, by using annualized volatility. Monte Carlo simulation of the Geometric Brownian Motion is used to forecast operating costs. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters within a project such as capital investment, ore grade, and mill recovery, we used triangular, uniform, and normal statistical distribution, respectively. To decrease uncertainty related to selection of the appropriate discount rate, we have applied the concept of fuzzy sets theory. The result is a Net Present Value (NPV) based on the cash flows generated by the simulation over the timeframe of the project. When using fuzzy numbers, the fuzzy NPV itself is the payoff distribution from the project. The model explains investment behavior satisfactorily, both from a statistical and from an economic point of view.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0037549711410902","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,22]],"date-time":"2011-06-22T21:39:27Z","timestamp":1308778767000},"page":"726-742","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Hybrid model of evaluation of underground lead\u2014zinc mine capacity expansion project using Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy numbers"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"87","author":[{"given":"Zoran","family":"Gligoric","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Republic of Serbia,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Cedomir","family":"Beljic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Republic of Serbia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Branko","family":"Gluscevic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Republic of Serbia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sasa","family":"Jovanovic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Concern Farmakom M.B. Sabac, Republic of Serbia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0006-3495(03)75126-1"},{"key":"atypb2","first-page":"25","volume":"219","author":"Santos T.","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proc IME M J Eng Marit Environ"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-405X(77)90005-8"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rfs\/14.1.113"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00137910600705210"},{"key":"atypb6","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Project Evaluation Conference","author":"Samis M."},{"key":"atypb7","first-page":"350","author":"Dimitrakopoulos R.","year":"2007","journal-title":"Professional development short course notes"},{"key":"atypb8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1504\/IJMME.2008.020457"},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1504\/IJRAM.2007.014092"},{"key":"atypb10","first-page":"38","volume":"2","author":"Copeland TE","year":"1998","journal-title":"McKinsey Q"},{"key":"atypb11","first-page":"128","volume":"3","author":"Copeland TE","year":"1998","journal-title":"McKisey Q"},{"key":"atypb12","unstructured":"Mun J. Real Options analysis: Tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons, 2002, p.386."},{"key":"atypb13","unstructured":"Trigeorgis L. Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy Resource Allocation, Cambridge, Massachusetts, MA: The MIT Press, 1998, p.427."},{"key":"atypb14","unstructured":"Copeland TE and Antikarov V. Real options a practitioner\u2019s guide . New York: Thompson Texere, 2003, p.370."},{"key":"atypb15","unstructured":"Winston W. Financial models using simulation and optimization. Newfield, NY: Palisade, 1998, p.499."},{"key":"atypb16","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 2004 MEMS AGM Pre-Conference Workshop","author":"Samis M."},{"key":"atypb17","unstructured":"Woodhall M. Managing the mining life cycle: Mineral resource management in the deep level gold mining. MSc project research report, submitted to the University of the Witwatersrand, October 2002, p. 84."},{"key":"atypb18","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 2nd International Seminar on Strategic versus Tactical Approaches in Mining, Australian Centre for Geomechanics","author":"Elkington T."},{"key":"atypb19","first-page":"153","volume":"4","author":"Trigeorgis L.","year":"1990","journal-title":"Adv Futures Options Res"},{"key":"atypb20","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 98th CIM AGM","author":"Samis M."},{"key":"atypb21","first-page":"69","volume":"91","author":"Samis M.","year":"1998","journal-title":"CIM Bull"},{"key":"atypb22","first-page":"33","volume":"55","author":"Kazakidis VN","year":"2003","journal-title":"SME Min Eng J"},{"key":"atypb23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02721.x"},{"key":"atypb24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400830176"},{"key":"atypb25","volume-title":"Stochastic versus deterministic systems of differential equations","author":"Ladde GS","year":"2004"},{"key":"atypb26","volume-title":"Mine investment analysis","author":"Gentry DW","year":"1984"},{"key":"atypb27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0019-9958(65)90241-X"},{"key":"atypb28","volume-title":"Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic applications","author":"Bojadziev G.","year":"1998"},{"key":"atypb29","volume-title":"Fuzzy set theory and its applications","author":"Zimmermann HJ","year":"1992"},{"key":"atypb30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0020-0255(75)90036-5"},{"key":"atypb31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-1161-7_6"},{"key":"atypb32","volume-title":"Introduction to fuzzy arithmetic: Theory and applications","author":"Kaufmann A.","year":"1985"},{"key":"atypb33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0360-8352(95)00045-3"},{"key":"atypb34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-0114(00)00043-9"}],"container-title":["SIMULATION"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0037549711410902","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0037549711410902","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T11:23:12Z","timestamp":1777634592000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0037549711410902"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,22]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0037549711410902"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0037549711410902","relation":{},"ISSN":["0037-5497","1741-3133"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0037-5497","type":"print"},{"value":"1741-3133","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,22]]}}}