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Therefore, the study of the evolution of mobile apps spread may be approached using a proper network model that considers the influence of peers. Influence of peers and other social contagions have been successfully described using models of epidemiological type. Hence, in this paper we propose an epidemiological random network model with realistic parameters to predict the evolution of downloads of apps. With this model, we are able to predict the behavior of an app in the market in the short term looking at its evolution in the early days of its launch. The numerical results provided by the proposed network are compared with data from real apps. This comparison shows that predictions improve as the model is fed back. Marketing researchers and strategy business managers can benefit from the proposed model since it can be helpful to predict app behavior over the time anticipating the spread of an app.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0037549717712600","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,7]],"date-time":"2017-06-07T08:34:30Z","timestamp":1496824470000},"page":"123-130","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Predicting mobile apps spread: An epidemiological random network modeling approach"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"94","author":[{"given":"Juan","family":"Alegre-Sanahuja","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Matem\u00e1tica Multidisciplinar, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Val\u00e9ncia, Valencia, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan-Carlos","family":"Cort\u00e9s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Matem\u00e1tica Multidisciplinar, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Val\u00e9ncia, Valencia, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rafael-Jacinto","family":"Villanueva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Matem\u00e1tica Multidisciplinar, Universitat Polit\u00e8cnica de Val\u00e9ncia, Valencia, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Francisco-Jos\u00e9","family":"Santonja","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Estad\u00edstica e Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universitat de Val\u00e9ncia, Valencia, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0037549717712600","unstructured":"Smartphone vendor market share, http:\/\/www.idc.com\/promo\/smartphone-market-share\/vendor (2017, accessed 7 May 2017)."},{"key":"bibr2-0037549717712600","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gartner says sales of smartphones grew 20 percent in third quarter of 2014, https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/newsroom\/id\/2944819 (2014, accessed 7 May 2017).","DOI":"10.1016\/S1353-4858(14)70062-5"},{"key":"bibr3-0037549717712600","unstructured":"List of mobile software distribution platforms, http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_mobile_software_distribution_platforms (2017, accessed 7 May 2017)."},{"key":"bibr4-0037549717712600","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yang J, Leskovec J. 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