{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,19]],"date-time":"2025-05-19T11:27:10Z","timestamp":1747654030447,"version":"3.38.0"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[1990,1,1]],"date-time":"1990-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":631152000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["SIMULATION"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1990,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> This paper describes HIV transmission models built using STELLA, a new language for the Apple Macintosh. These include a basic model, or template, of sexual transmission of HIV; a model of heterosexual transmission constructed from the template; and a model which simulates transmission caused by needle sharing. The paper also describes a computer program, based on the template rate equations, which optimizes key epidemiological parameters associated with the early epidemic in San Francisco. With this program we have shown that the per contact transmission probability (infectivity) of the antigen- positive first stage of infection may be significantly higher than the infectivity of the antibody- positive subsequent stage. This finding stresses the importance of screening for viral antigens to detect first stage infection in high risk groups. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/003754979005400103","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,3,29]],"date-time":"2008-03-29T17:23:43Z","timestamp":1206811423000},"page":"7-20","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Dynamic models of the AIDS epidemic"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"54","author":[{"given":"David J.","family":"Ahlgren","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Engineering and Computer Science Trinity College, Hartford, CT 06106"}]},{"given":"Alex C.","family":"Stein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pratt and Whitney Aircraft Middletown, CT 06457"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[1990,1,1]]},"reference":[{"volume-title":"Abstracts of the III International Conference on AIDS","author":"Ahlgren D.","key":"atypb1"},{"key":"atypb2","unstructured":"Ahlgren D., Stein A., Lyons P. 1987b. \"Computer Model of the AIDS Epidemic.\" Archives of AIDS Research 1,1: 69-79. (Reprinted in AIDS Reference Guide, Atlantic Information Services, Inc., Washington, D.C., 1988.)"},{"volume-title":"Abstracts of the IV International Conference on AIDS","author":"Ahlgren D.","key":"atypb3"},{"volume-title":"Abstracts of the IV International Conference on AIDS","author":"Ahlgren D.","key":"atypb4"},{"volume-title":"Proceedings of the 1988 Summer Computer Simulation Conference","author":"Ahlgren D.","key":"atypb5"},{"key":"atypb6","first-page":"2","volume":"4","author":"Ahlgren D.","year":"1989","journal-title":"AIDS and Public Policy Journal,"},{"key":"atypb7","first-page":"4","volume":"35","author":"Ahlgren D.","year":"1987","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Microwave Theory and Technique MTT"},{"journal-title":"JAIDS","year":"1990","author":"Ahlgren D.","key":"atypb8"},{"volume-title":"Abstracts of The First International Conference on the Global Impact of AIDS","author":"Barrett J.B.","key":"atypb9"},{"key":"atypb10","unstructured":"Calahan D. 1972. Computer-Aided Network Design. McGraw-Hill New York), 282-303."},{"key":"atypb11","unstructured":"U. S. Centers for Disease Control. 1989. HIV\/AIDS Monthly Surveillance Report. (Atlanta, October)."},{"key":"atypb12","unstructured":"Coutinho R.A. et al. 1986. The Natural History of HIV Infection in Homosexual Men. In Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome. Gluckman J. C. and Vilmer E. eds. Elsevier, 141-148."},{"key":"atypb13","unstructured":"Dietz K. 1988. \"The Dynamics of Spread of HIV Infection in the Heterosexual Population.\" In Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling of Aids. Eds. J. C. Jager & E. J. Ruitenberg, Oxford University Press , 77-105."},{"key":"atypb14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(88)90077-6"},{"key":"atypb15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00280169"},{"volume-title":"Abstracts of the III International Conference on AIDS","author":"Doll L.S.","key":"atypb16"},{"key":"atypb17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/comjnl\/6.2.163"},{"volume-title":"Abstracts of the III International Conference on AIDS","author":"Fox R.","key":"atypb18"},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican1088-40"},{"key":"atypb20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(87)90044-7"},{"volume-title":"Presented at the 20th annual meeting of the Society for Epidemiologic Research","author":"Hessol N.","key":"atypb21"},{"volume-title":"Presented at Los Alamos Center for Nonlinear Studies Conference on Nonlinearity in Biology and Medicine","author":"Hyman J.M.","key":"atypb22"},{"key":"atypb23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-985X.1988.tb00001.x","volume":"151","author":"Isham, V.","year":"1988","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society."},{"key":"atypb24","series-title":"Project proposal","volume-title":"ASSP: AIDS-Spread Simulations and Projections","author":"Koch M.G.","year":"1987"},{"key":"atypb25","series-title":"Abstracts of the 115th Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association","volume-title":"Projections of AIDS Cases among Homosexual and Bisexual Men in San Francisco: 1987-1991","author":"Lemp G.","year":"1987"},{"key":"atypb26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican1088-82"},{"key":"atypb27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.77.5.578"},{"key":"atypb28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/326137a0"},{"key":"atypb29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.75.5.493"},{"volume-title":"Presented at Johns Hopkins University Conference on Johns Hopkins Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of the AIDS Epidemic","author":"Pickering J.","key":"atypb30"},{"volume-title":"Modeling the Incidence of AIDS in New York","year":"1988","author":"Pickering J.","key":"atypb31"},{"key":"atypb32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican1088-90"},{"volume-title":"An Academic User's Guide to STELLA","year":"1987","author":"Richmond B.","key":"atypb33"},{"volume-title":"Abstracts of The First International Conference on the Global Impact of AIDS","author":"Roberts C.A.","key":"atypb34"},{"key":"atypb35","first-page":"6","volume":"125","author":"van Griensven G.J.P.","year":"1987","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"}],"container-title":["SIMULATION"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/003754979005400103","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/003754979005400103","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,3]],"date-time":"2025-03-03T18:40:40Z","timestamp":1741027240000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/003754979005400103"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1990,1]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1990,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/003754979005400103"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/003754979005400103","relation":{},"ISSN":["0037-5497","1741-3133"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0037-5497"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1741-3133"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1990,1]]}}}