{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T13:36:03Z","timestamp":1777901763096,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":6,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[1993,10,1]],"date-time":"1993-10-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":749433600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["SIMULATION"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1993,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>A simulation model for forecasting retail sales and dealer inventories is presented. The model is based on the average time in distribution (ATD), a new statistic calculated from warranty cards returned by customers after purchasing a product. While warranty card returns are highly random both in number and arrival rate, the ATD is a relatively stable indicator rarely used in forecasting. Sales and inventories are generated by fitting their estimated ATDs to warranty cards. A decision support system (DSS), incorporating the simulation model as well as the standard components database, model base, user interface, report and graph facilities is outlined and discussed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/003754979306100410","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,3,29]],"date-time":"2008-03-29T13:23:43Z","timestamp":1206797023000},"page":"268-274","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Forecasting Retail Sales and Dealer Inventories: A Simulation and Decision Support System"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"61","author":[{"given":"Israel","family":"Spiegler","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Management The Leon Recanati Graduate School of Business Administration Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv, Israel 69978"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jerome","family":"Herniter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management Boston University Boston, MA 02215"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[1993,10,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/4372.4374"},{"key":"atypb2","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control","author":"Box, G.E.P.","year":"1970"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0019-8501(86)90046-5"},{"key":"atypb4","volume-title":"Statistical Analysis for Decision Making","author":"Hamburg, M.","year":"1990","edition":"5"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1250143"},{"key":"atypb6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980050207"}],"container-title":["SIMULATION"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/003754979306100410","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/003754979306100410","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T11:09:09Z","timestamp":1777633749000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/003754979306100410"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1993,10]]},"references-count":6,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1993,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/003754979306100410"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/003754979306100410","relation":{},"ISSN":["0037-5497","1741-3133"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0037-5497","type":"print"},{"value":"1741-3133","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1993,10]]}}}