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The goal of this study is to enrich the toolset for predicting breakthroughs in scientific research. A set of multidimensional and practical bibliometric indicators is used to identify ERTs, to further identify the knowledge bases of ERTs and construct citation curves for both ERTs and their knowledge bases. The development trends of the citation curves of ERTs and their knowledge bases in different time periods are compared and analysed from two dimensions: knowledge transition and continuous growth. We use the field of stem cell research to test our method. Based on the outcome of the analysis, we can assess the breakthrough potential of ERTs. The stratification, transition and recent changes of the citation curve can be used as a basis for analysing and assessing the ERTs\u2019 breakthrough potential. The combination of different citation diffusion patterns of ERTs and their knowledge bases can improve the effectiveness of identifying ERTs that can become breakthrough innovations. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/01655515211061219","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,14]],"date-time":"2022-07-14T04:30:12Z","timestamp":1657773012000},"page":"1390-1416","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Breakthrough potential of emerging research topics based on citation diffusion features"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"49","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7453-3331","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Haiyun","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Business School, Shandong University of Technology, China"}]},{"given":"Jos","family":"Winnink","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS), Leiden University, The Netherlands"}]},{"given":"Hongshen","family":"Pang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shenzhen University Library, China"}]},{"given":"Shuhao","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, China"}]},{"given":"Liang","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (ISTIC), China"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-01655515211061219","first-page":"955","volume":"35","author":"Zhang J","year":"2016","journal-title":"J China Soc Sci Tech Inform"},{"key":"bibr2-01655515211061219","volume-title":"The structure of scientific revolutions","author":"Kuhn T.","year":"1962"},{"key":"bibr3-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aao0185"},{"key":"bibr4-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2020.120502"},{"key":"bibr5-01655515211061219","volume-title":"The sociology of science: theoretical and empirical investigations","author":"Merton RK.","year":"1973"},{"key":"bibr6-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0048393109359778"},{"key":"bibr7-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511498404"},{"key":"bibr8-01655515211061219","first-page":"88","volume":"33","author":"Du J","year":"2019","journal-title":"Bullet Natl Nat Sci Found China"},{"key":"bibr9-01655515211061219","first-page":"106","volume":"44","author":"Luo R","year":"2021","journal-title":"Inform Stud: Theor Appl"},{"key":"bibr10-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1147166"},{"key":"bibr11-01655515211061219","first-page":"109","volume":"29","author":"Jiang J","year":"2017","journal-title":"R D Manag"},{"key":"bibr12-01655515211061219","first-page":"53","volume":"31","author":"Li Z","year":"2016","journal-title":"Glob Sci Technol Econ Outlook"},{"key":"bibr13-01655515211061219","first-page":"94","volume":"7","author":"Liang Z","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci Soc"},{"key":"bibr14-01655515211061219","volume-title":"Early-stage detection of breakthrough-class scientific research: using micro-level citation dynamics","author":"Winnink J.","year":"2017"},{"key":"bibr15-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2018.05.018"},{"key":"bibr16-01655515211061219","first-page":"87","volume":"61","author":"Wang X","year":"2017","journal-title":"Libr Inform Serv"},{"key":"bibr17-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-5973.00183"},{"key":"bibr18-01655515211061219","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 17th international conference of the international society for scientometrics and informetrics (ISSI)","author":"Xu H"},{"key":"bibr19-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ipm.2020.102428"},{"key":"bibr20-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-014-1330-7"},{"key":"bibr21-01655515211061219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.23505"},{"key":"bibr22-01655515211061219","first-page":"100","volume":"64","author":"Cao Y","year":"2020","journal-title":"Libr Inform Serv"},{"key":"bibr23-01655515211061219","volume-title":"Disruptive technologies: advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy","author":"Manyika J","year":"2013"},{"key":"bibr24-01655515211061219","author":"Thomson Reuters","year":"2015","journal-title":"The future is open, 2015 state of innovation"},{"key":"bibr25-01655515211061219","unstructured":"DeepTech. 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