{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T17:42:17Z","timestamp":1777916537863,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2000,10,1]],"date-time":"2000-10-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":970358400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Med Decis Making"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Background. Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. Methods. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities : 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. Results. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. Conclusion. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory. Key words: decision analysis; cumulative prospect theory; expected utility theory ; standard gamble. (Med Decis Making 2000;20:404-412)<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989x0002000404","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,3,4]],"date-time":"2007-03-04T20:41:53Z","timestamp":1173040913000},"page":"404-411","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Decision Analysis with Cumulative Prospect Theory"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Ahmed M.","family":"Bayoumi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. Bayoumi Inner City Health Research Unit, 2-024 Shuter Wing, St. Michael's Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, Canada M5B 1W8; telephone (416) 864-5728; fax: (416) 864-5485; e-mail: (ahmed )"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Donald A.","family":"Redelmeier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. Bayoumi Inner City Health Research Unit, 2-024 Shuter Wing, St. Michael's Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, Canada M5B 1W8; telephone (416) 864-5728; fax: (416) 864-5485; e-mail: (ahmed )"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2000,10,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1993.03510010078034"},{"key":"atypb2","unstructured":"Howard RA Risk preference. In: Howard RA, Matheson JE (eds). The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis. Menlo Park, CA: Strategic Decisions Group, 1984:627-63."},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9301300409"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266462300008461"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1914185"},{"key":"atypb6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7455683"},{"key":"atypb7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-2681(95)90015-2"},{"key":"atypb8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01721094"},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00122574"},{"key":"atypb10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01065812"},{"key":"atypb11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9501500212"},{"key":"atypb12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2998573"},{"key":"atypb13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.42.12.1676"},{"key":"atypb14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00002030-199812000-00013"},{"key":"atypb15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0021-9681(87)90019-1"},{"key":"atypb16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1008969512182"},{"key":"atypb17","volume-title":"Using Descriptive Findings of Prospect Theory to Improve Prescriptive Applications of Expected Utility [working paper]","author":"Bleichrodt H.","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-6296(86)90020-2"},{"key":"atypb19","first-page":"921","volume":"148","author":"Laupacis A.","year":"1993","journal-title":"Can Med Assoc J."},{"key":"atypb20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01065371"},{"key":"atypb21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0710"},{"key":"atypb22","volume-title":"Parameter-free elicitation of utility and probability weighting functions [working paper]","author":"Abdellaoui M.","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb23","volume-title":"A parameter-free elicitation of the probability weighting function in medical decision analysis [working paper]","author":"Bleichrodt H.","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jmps.1999.1257"},{"key":"atypb25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.28.8.936"},{"key":"atypb26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9701700203"},{"key":"atypb27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9701700311"},{"key":"atypb28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198205273062103"},{"key":"atypb29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9301300306"},{"key":"atypb30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199004193221620"},{"key":"atypb31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198701293160509"},{"key":"atypb32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9801800406"},{"key":"atypb33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.42.8.1131"},{"key":"atypb34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9901900412"},{"key":"atypb35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-122-11-199506010-00007"},{"key":"atypb36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9601600101"}],"container-title":["Medical Decision Making"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0272989X0002000404","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0272989X0002000404","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T17:50:28Z","timestamp":1777657828000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0272989X0002000404"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2000,10]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0272989X0002000404"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0272989x0002000404","relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-989X","1552-681X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-989X","type":"print"},{"value":"1552-681X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2000,10]]}}}