{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T17:43:18Z","timestamp":1777916598974,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2005,5,1]],"date-time":"2005-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1114905600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Med Decis Making"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Purpose. To assess and rank the performance of different methods of predicting the probability of death following a specified surgical procedure. Method. Actuarial estimates of the probability of early mortality for 40 patients were derived from 2 sources: a large published surgical series and a smaller series from the center where surgery was performed. Surgeons and cardiologists also provided probability estimates for these patients. Results. Estimates derived from the published literature were too optimistic and did not differentiate between patients more, or less, likely to die (i.e., failed to discriminate). Doctors\u2019 judgments were unbiased but failed to discriminate. Local actuarial estimates (influenced by only 1 or 2 variables) were unbiased, did discriminate, but exhibited more random variation. Conclusions. The preferred source of estimates depends upon which aspect of accuracy is of greatest importance. Differences in patient selection and error in the identification of risk factors mean that published results will not always appropriately predict surgical risk at other institutions. Risk stratification may be more robust when based on a small set of cross-validated predictors rather than a larger set of predictors that includes some whose reliability has not been confirmed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989x05276849","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,6,10]],"date-time":"2005-06-10T13:37:52Z","timestamp":1118410672000},"page":"262-282","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Assessing the Likelihood of an Important Clinical Outcome: New Insights from a Comparison of Clinical and Actuarial Judgment"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"25","author":[{"given":"Tim","family":"Rakow","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Essex, Colchester, UK,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Charles","family":"Vincent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Imperial College, London, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kate","family":"Bull","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Hospital for Sick Children, Great Ormond Street, London, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nigel","family":"Harvey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University College London, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2005,5,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.318.7179.318"},{"key":"atypb2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-105-4-586"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.1986.00360130103014"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/11281-000"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.2648573"},{"key":"atypb6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1076-8971.2.2.293"},{"key":"atypb7","volume-title":"Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making","author":"Hastie R","year":"2001","edition":"2"},{"key":"atypb8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(75)90012-4"},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.107.3.296"},{"key":"atypb10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.32.5.805"},{"key":"atypb11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0027773"},{"key":"atypb12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037164"},{"key":"atypb13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/1099-0720(200009)14:5<455::AID-ACP667>3.0.CO;2-V"},{"key":"atypb14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(84)90024-2"},{"key":"atypb15","volume-title":"Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart","author":"Gigerenzer G","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb16","first-page":"93","volume-title":"Toward a General Theory of Expertise","author":"Patel VL","year":"1991"},{"key":"atypb17","volume-title":"Surgical Intuition: What It Is and How to Get It","author":"Abernathy CM","year":"1995"},{"key":"atypb18","volume-title":"Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions","author":"Klein G.","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-8703(51)90012-9"},{"key":"atypb20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-9149(75)90484-1"},{"key":"atypb21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5223(95)70208-3"},{"key":"atypb22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5223(97)70183-1"},{"key":"atypb23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.81.5.1520"},{"issue":"5","key":"atypb24","first-page":"177","volume":"82","author":"Caspi J","year":"1990","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"atypb25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5223(95)70033-1"},{"issue":"5","key":"atypb26","first-page":"100","volume":"86","author":"Pearl JM","year":"1992","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"atypb27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5223(19)35821-0"},{"key":"atypb28","volume-title":"SPSS Advanced Statistics 6.1","author":"Norusis MJ","year":"1994"},{"key":"atypb29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(82)90237-9"},{"key":"atypb30","volume-title":"Judgment and Decision Making","author":"Yates JF","year":"1990"},{"key":"atypb31","first-page":"381","volume-title":"Subjective Probability","author":"Yates JF","year":"1994"},{"key":"atypb32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"atypb33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9501500204"},{"key":"atypb34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0895-4356(91)90146-Z"},{"key":"atypb35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470317082"},{"key":"atypb36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(71)90033-X"},{"key":"atypb37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0046845"},{"key":"atypb38","volume-title":"Judgment Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications","author":"Cooksey R.","year":"1996"},{"key":"atypb39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.91.3.517"},{"key":"atypb40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X8900900207"},{"key":"atypb41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.36.8.887"},{"key":"atypb42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980030402"},{"key":"atypb43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.112.2.363"},{"key":"atypb44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00041157"},{"key":"atypb45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1995.1077"},{"key":"atypb46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(78)90008-9"},{"key":"atypb47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037613"},{"key":"atypb48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(81)90010-4"},{"key":"atypb49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.43.6.1163"},{"key":"atypb50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.3.388"},{"key":"atypb51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0992(199611)26:6<915::AID-EJSP797>3.0.CO;2-W"},{"key":"atypb52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124"},{"key":"atypb53","volume-title":"Decision Management: How to Assure Better Decisions in Your Company","author":"Yates JF","year":"2003"},{"key":"atypb54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X0102100106"}],"container-title":["Medical Decision Making"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0272989X05276849","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0272989X05276849","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T17:52:12Z","timestamp":1777657932000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0272989X05276849"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]},"references-count":54,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0272989X05276849"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0272989x05276849","relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-989X","1552-681X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-989X","type":"print"},{"value":"1552-681X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]}}}