{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T11:54:02Z","timestamp":1786708442758,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,10]],"date-time":"2014-09-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1410307200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Aging Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Objectives: To better understand future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China. Method: To further develop and apply the ProFamy extended cohort-component method and the most recent census and survey data. Results: (a) Chinese disabled elders and the annual growth rate of the percentage of national gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to home-based care costs for disabled elders will increase much more rapidly than the growth of total elderly population; (b) home-based care needs and costs for disabled oldest-old aged 80+ will increase much faster than that for disabled young-old aged 65-79 after 2030; (c) disabled unmarried elders living alone and their home-based care costs increase substantially faster than those disabled unmarried elders living with children; (d) percent of rural disabled oldest-old will be substantially higher than that of rural population after 2030; (e) sensitivity analyses show that possible changes in mortality and elderly disability status are the major direct factors affecting home-based care needs and costs; (f) caregivers resources under the universal two-child policy will be substantially better than that under the rigorous fertility policy unchanged. Discussion: We discuss policy recommendations concerning pathways to healthy aging with relatively reduced care costs, including reductions of the prevalence of disability, gender equality, the universal two-child policy and resources of caregivers, encouragements of rural-to-urban family migration and elder\u2019s residential proximity to their adult children, and remarriages of not-married elders.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0898264314552690","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,11]],"date-time":"2014-09-11T20:40:51Z","timestamp":1410468051000},"page":"519-550","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":34,"title":["Implications of Changes in Households and Living Arrangements for Future Home-Based Care Needs and Costs for Disabled Elders in China"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"27","author":[{"given":"Yi","family":"Zeng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Duke University, Durham, NC, USA"},{"name":"Peking University, Beijing, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Huashuai","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Duke University, Durham, NC, USA"},{"name":"Xiangtan University, Hunan, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhenglian","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Duke University, Durham, NC, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kenneth C.","family":"Land","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Duke University, Durham, NC, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0898264314552690","first-page":"189","volume-title":"Family demography, methods and applications","author":"Bongaarts J.","year":"1987"},{"key":"bibr2-0898264314552690","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2807974"},{"key":"bibr3-0898264314552690","volume-title":"Projections of national health expenditures: Methodology and model specification","author":"Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services","year":"2004"},{"key":"bibr4-0898264314552690","first-page":"350","volume-title":"Research on elderly population, family, health and care needs\/costs","author":"Chen H.","year":"2010"},{"key":"bibr5-0898264314552690","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2006.07.002"},{"key":"bibr6-0898264314552690","first-page":"50","volume":"30","author":"Du P.","year":"2006","journal-title":"Population Research"},{"key":"bibr7-0898264314552690","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2501\/IJMR-53-5-593-618"},{"key":"bibr8-0898264314552690","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198007173030304"},{"key":"bibr9-0898264314552690","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/00324720902745597","volume":"63","author":"Goodkind D.","year":"2009","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"bibr10-0898264314552690","unstructured":"Grundy E. 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