{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T22:45:16Z","timestamp":1791413116401,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,1]],"date-time":"2025-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1748736000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"national science foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DRL-2024462"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DRL-2024462"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Psychol Sci"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The gambler\u2019s fallacy is typically defined as the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if it has occurred recently. Although forms of this fallacy have been documented numerous times, past work either has not actually measured probabilistic predictions but rather point predictions or used sequences that were not independent. To address these problems, we conducted a series of high-powered, preregistered studies in which we asked 750 adult Amazon Mechanical Turk workers from the United States to report probabilistic predictions for truly independent sequences. In contrast to point predictions, which generated a significant gambler\u2019s fallacy, probabilistic predictions were not found to lead to a gambler\u2019s fallacy. Moreover, the point predictions could not be reconstructed by sampling from the probability judgments. This suggests that the gambler\u2019s fallacy originates at the decision stage rather than in probabilistic reasoning, as posited by several leading theories. New theories of the gambler\u2019s fallacy may be needed to explain these findings.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/09567976251344570","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,5]],"date-time":"2025-06-05T15:02:17Z","timestamp":1749135737000},"page":"451-464","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["On the Robustness and Provenance of the Gambler\u2019s Fallacy"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"36","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9083-3265","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yang","family":"Xiang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Harvard University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3982-3242","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kevin","family":"Dorst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Linguistics and Philosophy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6546-3298","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel J.","family":"Gershman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Harvard University"},{"name":"Center for Brain Science, Harvard University"},{"name":"Center for Brains, Minds, and Machines, Massachusetts Institute of Technology"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_5_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2015.11.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.1090.1059"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03206327"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-405X(98)00027-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.676"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-405X(02)00147-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_8_1","first-page":"250","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 16th Conference of the Association for Machine Translation in the Americas (Volume 1: Research Track)","author":"Castello M.","year":"2024","unstructured":"Castello M., Pantana G., Torre I. (2024). Examining cognitive biases in ChatGPT 3.5 and ChatGPT 4 through human evaluation and linguistic comparison. In Knowles R., Eriguchi A., Goel S. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 16th Conference of the Association for Machine Translation in the Americas (Volume 1: Research Track) (pp. 250\u2013260). Association for Machine Translation in the Americas."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.39.12.1521"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0037010"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cogpsych.2016.06.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dorst K. (2024). Bayesians commit the gambler\u2019s fallacy. SSRN. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.4683064","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.4683064"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_13_1","first-page":"17","volume-title":"Conservatism in human information processing","author":"Edwards W.","year":"1968","unstructured":"Edwards W. (1968). Conservatism in human information processing. In Kleinmuntz B. (Ed.), Formal representation of human judgment (pp. 17\u201352). John Wiley & Sons."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjad025"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0000245"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779143000033"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_17_1","first-page":"284","volume-title":"Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives","author":"Gigerenzer G.","year":"1993","unstructured":"Gigerenzer G. (1993). The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. In Manktelow K. I., Over D. E. (Eds.). Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 284\u2013313). Routledge."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Glazer J. Rubinstein A. (2024). Making predictions based on data: Holistic and atomistic procedures. Journal of Economic Theory 216 Article 105791. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jet.2023.105791","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jet.2023.105791"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0963721412447619"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0015241"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13164-015-0283-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0056878"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031338"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(72)90016-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2018.3233"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_26_1","volume-title":"A philosophical essay on probabilities","author":"Marquis de Laplace P. S.","year":"1902","unstructured":"Marquis de Laplace P. S. (1902). A philosophical essay on probabilities. John Wiley & Sons."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01277598"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Miller J. B. Sanjurjo A. (2018). How experience confirms the gambler\u2019s fallacy when sample size is neglected. OSF. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31219\/osf.io\/m5xsk","DOI":"10.31219\/osf.io\/m5xsk"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2014.07.013"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355302760193896"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-937X.2009.00582.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rao K. Hastie R. (2023). Predicting outcomes in a sequence of binary events: Belief updating and gambler\u2019s fallacy reasoning. Cognitive Science 47(1) Article e13211. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/cogs.13211","DOI":"10.1111\/cogs.13211"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13546783.2014.942367"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0087414"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bandc.2015.06.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tics.2016.10.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2011.06.017"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1930297500000309"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0001547"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10683-014-9423-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01064047"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031322"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cogs.12101"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_45_1","first-page":"226","volume-title":"Psychological investigations of competence in decision making","author":"Weiss D. J.","year":"2004","unstructured":"Weiss D. J., Shanteau J. (2004). The vice of consensus and the virtue of consistency. In Smith K., Shanteau J., Johnson P. (Eds.), Psychological investigations of competence in decision making (pp. 226\u2013240). Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"e_1_3_5_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-26300-7_4"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/s13414-021-02300-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_5_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/rev0000427"}],"container-title":["Psychological Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/09567976251344570","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/09567976251344570","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/09567976251344570","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/09567976251344570","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,22]],"date-time":"2026-08-22T10:00:20Z","timestamp":1787392820000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/09567976251344570"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,6]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/09567976251344570"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/09567976251344570","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v3\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v3\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v2\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v1\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v4\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v4\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v1\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v2\/review1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v2\/review2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v2\/response1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1177\/09567976251344570\/v1\/decision1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0956-7976","1467-9280"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0956-7976","type":"print"},{"value":"1467-9280","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,6]]}}}