{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T22:42:18Z","timestamp":1777675338593,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":107,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,9]],"date-time":"2019-05-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1557360000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["The Holocene"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Humanity has often faced critical phases determined by climate changes combined with other natural catastrophes that implied significant socio-economic consequences. In this article, we present an observational study on the possible systematic connection between these factors for the specific case of Italy, comparing the occurrence of pandemics, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions with the glacial history of the last millennium. We have found that the natural catastrophes concentrate in the periods of ice expansion in Europe, whereas the phenomena are in attenuation in the current phase of global warming. Such a behavior has influenced the economy of the country: in fact, a comparison with a reconstruction of the per capita Gross Domestic Product since 1310 shows that the periods of maximum economic expansion occurred during the deglaciation phases. This study has confirmed the general connection of the climate with a number of Earth processes and the difficulty to foresee its changes. Furthermore, the extension of the analysis at the world level for the last 2500 years has evidenced that different types of pandemics (plague, cholera and influenza) almost exclusively spread during the phases of glacial expansion.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0959683619846984","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,9]],"date-time":"2019-05-09T05:01:33Z","timestamp":1557378093000},"page":"1322-1334","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Observations on the connection between glacial phases, natural catastrophes and economic trends of the last millennium in Italy"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"29","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3634-1053","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pier Luigi","family":"Bragato","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Sezione Centro di Ricerche Sismologiche, Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale \u2013 OGS, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hanspeter","family":"Holzhauser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"UNESCO World Heritage Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Millennia of Stratification Between Human Life and Volcanoes: Strategies for Coexistence \u2013 Cities on Volcanoes 10, Napoli 2\u20137 September 2018","author":"AA VV","year":"2018"},{"key":"bibr2-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/9781137289773"},{"key":"bibr3-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Pandemie d\u2019Italia dalla Peste Nera all\u2019Influenza Suina: l\u2019impatto sulla societ\u00e0","author":"Alfani G","year":"2011"},{"key":"bibr4-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/469153a"},{"key":"bibr5-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-08638-y"},{"key":"bibr6-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013JB010392"},{"key":"bibr7-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-0273(93)90048-V"},{"key":"bibr8-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3402\/tellusb.v52i3.17080"},{"key":"bibr9-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2004GL019723"},{"key":"bibr10-0959683619846984","unstructured":"BBC News (2018) History of deadly earthquakes. Available at: www.bbc.com\/news\/world-12717980 (accessed 1 March 2019)."},{"key":"bibr11-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Cultural Consequences of the \u2018Little Ice Age\u2019","author":"Behringer W","year":"2005"},{"key":"bibr12-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0775"},{"key":"bibr13-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3394"},{"key":"bibr14-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Historia, et meteorologia incendii Aetnaei anni 1669","author":"Borelli GA","year":"1670"},{"key":"bibr15-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00024-016-1429-2"},{"key":"bibr16-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00024-017-1592-0"},{"key":"bibr17-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5772\/intechopen.71977"},{"key":"bibr18-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0220140111"},{"key":"bibr19-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00445-005-0412-z"},{"key":"bibr20-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2015.07.020"},{"key":"bibr21-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2017.02.002"},{"key":"bibr22-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0012-8252(79)90083-7"},{"key":"bibr23-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tecto.2014.10.016"},{"key":"bibr24-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms13712"},{"key":"bibr25-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2008.04.024"},{"key":"bibr26-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Storia economica dell\u2019Italia preindustriale","author":"Cipolla CM","year":"2002"},{"key":"bibr27-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quascirev.2006.07.008"},{"key":"bibr28-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jgrd.50587"},{"key":"bibr29-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s005310000117"},{"key":"bibr30-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.274.5295.2025"},{"key":"bibr31-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crte.2005.03.001"},{"key":"bibr32-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.289.5477.270"},{"key":"bibr33-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2008JB005860"},{"key":"bibr34-0959683619846984","first-page":"71","volume":"9","author":"Daniele V","year":"2007","journal-title":"Rivista di Politica Economica"},{"key":"bibr35-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/j.ctt5vjv5c"},{"key":"bibr36-0959683619846984","first-page":"S0213","volume":"57","author":"De Martino P","year":"2014","journal-title":"Annals of Geophysics"},{"key":"bibr37-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2010.05.014"},{"key":"bibr38-0959683619846984","unstructured":"Earle S (2015) Glacial periods of the Earth\u2019s history. In: Physical Geology. Victoria, BC, Canada, pp. 442\u2013446. Available at: https:\/\/opentextbc.ca\/geology."},{"key":"bibr39-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhevol.2008.08.012"},{"key":"bibr40-0959683619846984","first-page":"107","volume-title":"Symposium on Cyclic Sedimentation","author":"Fischer AG","year":"1964"},{"key":"bibr41-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1657\/1938-4246-46.4.933"},{"key":"bibr42-0959683619846984","first-page":"11","volume":"20","author":"Frith J","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Military and Veterans\u2019 Health"},{"key":"bibr43-0959683619846984","unstructured":"Glaciological Reports ([1881] 2017) The Swiss Glaciers. Yearbooks of the Cryospheric Commission of the Swiss Academy of Sciences (SCNAT) published since 1964 by the Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW) of ETH Z\u00fcrich. No. 1\u2013136. Available at: http:\/\/www.glamos.ch (accessed 1 March 2019)."},{"key":"bibr44-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2475\/ajs.287.9.853"},{"key":"bibr45-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Little Ice Ages: Ancient and Modern","volume":"2","author":"Grove JM","year":"2004"},{"key":"bibr46-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2006EO400001"},{"key":"bibr47-0959683619846984","unstructured":"Guidoboni E, Ferrari G, Mariotti D, et al. (2018) CFTI5med, Catalogo dei Forti Terremoti in Italia (461 a.C.1997) e nell\u2019area Mediterranea (760 a.C.1500). Rome: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Available at: http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/2122\/11895 (accessed 22 April 2019)."},{"key":"bibr48-0959683619846984","first-page":"59","volume":"32","author":"Haeberli W","year":"1991","journal-title":"Regio Basiliensis"},{"key":"bibr49-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203424957_chapter_5"},{"key":"bibr50-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.22498\/pages.11.1.13"},{"key":"bibr51-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2010.0031"},{"key":"bibr52-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1047759415002470"},{"key":"bibr53-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0921-8181(02)00223-0"},{"key":"bibr54-0959683619846984","first-page":"97","volume":"1","author":"Hoinkes H","year":"1975","journal-title":"Rivista Italiana di Geofisica"},{"key":"bibr55-0959683619846984","first-page":"35","volume-title":"Glacier Fluctuations During the Holocene","author":"Holzhauser H","year":"1997"},{"key":"bibr56-0959683619846984","first-page":"95","volume":"104","author":"Holzhauser H","year":"1996","journal-title":"Zeitschrift f\u00fcr Geomorphologie Neue Folge Suppl. Bd"},{"key":"bibr57-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1191\/0959683605hl853ra"},{"key":"bibr58-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quascirev.2009.03.009"},{"key":"bibr59-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jqs.955"},{"key":"bibr60-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-7823-3_22"},{"key":"bibr61-0959683619846984","first-page":"78","volume":"105","author":"Kellerer-Pirklbauer A","year":"2012","journal-title":"Austrian Journal of Earth Sciences"},{"key":"bibr62-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0088(199605)16:5<537::AID-JOC23>3.0.CO;2-F"},{"key":"bibr63-0959683619846984","first-page":"3","volume":"131","author":"Kuhn M","year":"1980","journal-title":"IAHS Publication"},{"key":"bibr64-0959683619846984","volume":"20","author":"Lisiecki LE","year":"2005","journal-title":"Paleoceanography"},{"key":"bibr65-0959683619846984","first-page":"5","volume":"21","author":"Lo Cascio E","year":"2005","journal-title":"Rivista di Storia Economica"},{"key":"bibr66-0959683619846984","unstructured":"Macedonio G, Martini M Commissione Nazionale incaricata di provvedere all\u2019aggiornamento dei Piani di Emergenza dell\u2019area vesuviana e flegrea per il rischio vulcanico (2012) Scenari eruttivi e livelli di allerta per il Vesuvio. Report for the Dipartimento di Protezione Civile. Available at: http:\/\/www.protezionecivile.gov.it\/resources\/cms\/documents\/scenario_web.pdf (accessed 1 March 2019)."},{"key":"bibr67-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118482698"},{"key":"bibr68-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S136149161000016X"},{"key":"bibr69-0959683619846984","first-page":"311","volume-title":"L\u2019impatto della \u2018Peste Antonina\u2019","author":"Malanima P","year":"2012"},{"key":"bibr70-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/1999GL900070"},{"key":"bibr71-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1951(90)90356-D"},{"key":"bibr72-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1951(95)00097-6"},{"key":"bibr73-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0185756"},{"key":"bibr74-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0435-3676.2005.00242.x"},{"key":"bibr75-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL050168"},{"key":"bibr76-0959683619846984","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Chemical Geology","volume":"482","author":"Moretti R","year":"2018"},{"key":"bibr77-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Parametrisierung der Gletscher-Klima-Beziehung f\u00fcr die Praxis, Grundlagen und Beispiele","author":"M\u00fcller P","year":"1988"},{"key":"bibr78-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/JC087iC02p01231"},{"key":"bibr79-0959683619846984","volume":"10324","author":"Nostro C","year":"1998","journal-title":"Journal of Geophysical Research"},{"key":"bibr80-0959683619846984","first-page":"215","volume-title":"Die Grindelwaldgletscher \u2013 Kunst und Wissenschaft","author":"Nussbaumer SU","year":"2014"},{"key":"bibr81-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Glaciers and Climate Change","author":"Oerlemans J","year":"2001"},{"key":"bibr82-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/002214307783258387"},{"key":"bibr83-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1130\/0091-7613(2002)030<0779:AFOATN>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"bibr84-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep06297"},{"key":"bibr85-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/j.ctt32bksk"},{"key":"bibr86-0959683619846984","first-page":"31","volume-title":"Cultural Consequences of the \u2018Little Ice Age\u2019","author":"Pfister C","year":"2005"},{"key":"bibr87-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/gssrl.80.2.243"},{"key":"bibr88-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00445-004-0348-8"},{"key":"bibr89-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2013.07.006"},{"key":"bibr90-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.002"},{"key":"bibr91-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3809\/jvirtex.2002.00053"},{"key":"bibr92-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-0273(93)90106-2"},{"key":"bibr93-0959683619846984","unstructured":"Rovida A, Locati M, Camassi R, et al. (2016) CPTI15, the 2015 Version of the Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes. Rome: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Available at: https:\/\/emidius.mi.ingv.it\/CPTI15-DBMI15 (accessed 1 March 2019)."},{"key":"bibr94-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa"},{"key":"bibr95-0959683619846984","first-page":"S0455","volume":"56","author":"Scandone R","year":"2013","journal-title":"Annals of Geophysics"},{"key":"bibr96-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-0273(91)90030-4"},{"key":"bibr97-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2007.09.014"},{"key":"bibr98-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-0273(93)90099-D"},{"key":"bibr99-0959683619846984","volume-title":"Volcanoes of the World","author":"Siebert L","year":"2010"},{"key":"bibr100-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00445-007-0121-x"},{"key":"bibr101-0959683619846984","volume-title":"L\u2019 Italia e l\u2019economia mondiale. Dall\u2019Unit\u00e0 a oggi","author":"Toniolo G","year":"2013"},{"key":"bibr102-0959683619846984","unstructured":"Viner D, Jones P (2000) Volcanoes and Their Effect on Climate (Information sheet 13, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Copyright 2000, Climatic Research Unit). Available at: http:\/\/www.cru.uea.ac.uk\/information-sheets (accessed 1 March 2019)."},{"key":"bibr103-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jog.2010.02.006"},{"key":"bibr104-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2014.05.006"},{"key":"bibr105-0959683619846984","first-page":"73","volume-title":"Klimawandel im Schweizer Alpenraum","author":"Wanner H","year":"2000"},{"key":"bibr106-0959683619846984","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013EO450001"},{"key":"bibr107-0959683619846984","first-page":"489","volume":"93","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2018","journal-title":"The Weekly Epidemiological Record"}],"container-title":["The Holocene"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0959683619846984","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/0959683619846984","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0959683619846984","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T08:15:17Z","timestamp":1777450517000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0959683619846984"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,9]]},"references-count":107,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0959683619846984"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0959683619846984","relation":{},"ISSN":["0959-6836","1477-0911"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0959-6836","type":"print"},{"value":"1477-0911","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,9]]}}}