{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T21:20:19Z","timestamp":1777929619577,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,12,1]],"date-time":"2006-12-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1164931200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Stat Methods Med Res"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper presents an extension of a general parametric class of transitional models of order p. In these models, the conditional distribution of the current observation, given the present and past history, is a mixture of conditional distributions, each of them corresponding to the current observation, given each one of the p-lagged observations. Such conditional distributions are constructed using bivariate copula models which allow for a rich range of dependence suitable to model non-Gaussian time series. Fixed and time varying covariates can be included in the models. These models have the advantage of straightforward construction and estimation for the analysis of time series and more general longitudinal data. A poliomyelitis incidence data set is used to illustrate the proposed methods, contrary to other researches\u2019 conclusions whose methods are mainly based on linear models, we find significant evidence of a decreasing trend in polio infection after accounting for seasonality.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280206070645","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,12,5]],"date-time":"2006-12-05T07:30:01Z","timestamp":1165303801000},"page":"593-609","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["A flexible class of parametric transition regression models based on copulas:                 application to poliomyelitis incidence"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Gabriel","family":"Escarela","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Matem\u00e1ticas, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma                         Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, Col. Vicentina, M\u00e9xico D.F.,                         Mexico,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rams\u00e9s H","family":"Mena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Investigaciones en Matem\u00e1ticas Aplicadas y en                         Sistemas (IIMAS), Universidad Nacional Aut\u00f3noma de                         M\u00e9xico (UNAM), M\u00e9xico D.F., M\u00e9xico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alberto","family":"Castillo-Morales","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Matem\u00e1ticas, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma                         Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, Col. Vicentina, M\u00e9xico D.F., Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,12,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02664769922098"},{"key":"atypb2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19990715)18:13<1707::AID-SIM138>3.0.CO;2-H"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198524847.001.0001","volume-title":"Analysis of longitudinal data","author":"Diggle PJ","year":"2002"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2531732"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19980715)17:13<1481::AID-SIM858>3.0.CO;2-H"},{"key":"atypb6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214503388619238"},{"key":"atypb7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1985.tb01383.x","volume":"47","author":"Raftery AE.","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B"},{"key":"atypb8","first-page":"1504","volume":"91","author":"Le ND","year":"1996","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/75.4.621"},{"key":"atypb10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02925271"},{"key":"atypb11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b13150"},{"key":"atypb12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.45.2.208"},{"key":"atypb13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9469.00191"},{"key":"atypb14","first-page":"671","volume":"73","author":"Hougaard P.","year":"1986","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"atypb15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1042727943"},{"key":"atypb16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3242-6"},{"key":"atypb17","author":"Mena RH","year":"2007","journal-title":"Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference"},{"key":"atypb18","volume-title":"Mixture models","author":"McLachlan GJ","year":"1988"},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176344136"},{"key":"atypb20","first-page":"267","volume-title":"Proceedings of Second International Symposium on Information Theory","author":"Akaike H."},{"key":"atypb21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1974.1100705"},{"key":"atypb22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021900200048294"},{"key":"atypb23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1267787"},{"key":"atypb24","first-page":"343","volume-title":"Bayesian Statistics 6","author":"Key JT","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1995.10476572"},{"key":"atypb26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"236","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.1996.10474708","volume":"5","author":"Dunn PK","year":"1996","journal-title":"Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics"},{"key":"atypb27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2532308"}],"container-title":["Statistical Methods in Medical Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0962280206070645","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0962280206070645","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T23:43:10Z","timestamp":1777678990000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0962280206070645"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,12]]},"references-count":27,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,12]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0962280206070645"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0962280206070645","relation":{},"ISSN":["0962-2802","1477-0334"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0962-2802","type":"print"},{"value":"1477-0334","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,12]]}}}