{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T14:58:58Z","timestamp":1793372338861,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":70,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,15]],"date-time":"2022-02-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1644883200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Med Biogr"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>John Graunt, a largely self-educated London draper, can plausibly be regarded as the founding father of demography, epidemiology and vital statistics. In his only publication, based on a pioneering analysis of the London Bills of Mortality, he replaced guesswork with reasoned estimates of population sizes and the first accurate information on male:female ratios. He quantified the extent of immigration from countryside to city and his demonstration of the \u2018dying out\u2019 of a cohort paved the way for life table analysis. His comparison of London data with rural data provided the first recognition of the \u2018urban penalty\u2019. His use of the first known tabular aggregates of health data clarified distinctions between acute diseases, which were often epidemic, and chronic illnesses which were often endemic. He quantified the high infant mortality and attempted the calculation of a case fatality rate during an epidemic of fever. He was the first to document the phenomenon of \u2018excess deaths\u2019 during epidemics. He provided a template for numerical analysis of demographic and health data and initiated the concepts of statistical association, statistical inference and population sampling. By making a novel concept intelligible to a broad audience he influenced the thinking of doctors, demographers and mathematicians.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/09677720221079826","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,15]],"date-time":"2022-02-15T14:38:45Z","timestamp":1644935925000},"page":"57-69","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["John Graunt F.R.S. (1620-74): The founding father of human demography, epidemiology and vital statistics"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8787-5755","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Henry","family":"Connor","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit for the History of Medicine, University of Birmingham, Hereford, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Aubrey J. Brief lives, vol.  I. Clark, A (ed).  Oxford:  Clarendon Press,  1898, pp. 271\u2013 274."},{"key":"bibr2-09677720221079826","first-page":"2","volume":"159","author":"Glass DV","year":"1963","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences"},{"key":"bibr3-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ref:odnb\/11306"},{"key":"bibr4-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2982578"},{"key":"bibr5-09677720221079826","unstructured":"A Timeline of the Company\u2019s History. https:\/\/www.beyondlife.co.uk\/drapers\/PDF\/Drapers_Company_History.pdf (accessed 25 November 2021)."},{"key":"bibr6-09677720221079826","unstructured":"The London Trained Bands 1572\u20131647. https:\/\/theroutiers.org\/wp\/about-us\/the-london-trained-bands\/ (accessed 25 November 2021)."},{"key":"bibr7-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Ellis H (ed). The obituary of Richard Smyth.  London:  The Camden Society,  1849:  102."},{"key":"bibr8-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Bright M (ed). Diary of Samuel Pepys. Pepys Diary Project Gutenberg. http:\/\/www.gutenberg.org\/files\/4200\/4200-h\/4200-h.htm (accessed 25 November 2021)."},{"key":"bibr9-09677720221079826","unstructured":"The land had housed the Earl of Arundel\u2019s house and garden and is now occupied by the Bank of England. The Petty-Southwell correspondence 1676-1687. The Marquess of Lansdowne (ed). \nNew York: \nSentry Press, \n1967, pp.\n112, \n218."},{"key":"bibr10-09677720221079826","volume-title":"Natural and political observations mentioned in a following index, and made upon the bills of mortality","author":"Graunt J","year":"1662"},{"key":"bibr11-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/pbsa.46.1.24298625"},{"key":"bibr12-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0268416016000278"},{"key":"bibr13-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/354773"},{"key":"bibr14-09677720221079826","unstructured":"A work entitled\n                      Observations on the Advance of Excise\n                      was circulated as a manuscript but has not survived. See reference 4."},{"key":"bibr15-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jhmas\/XVIII.4.337"},{"key":"bibr16-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0018246X15000321"},{"key":"bibr17-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511550041"},{"key":"bibr18-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5962\/bhl.title.39318"},{"key":"bibr19-09677720221079826","volume-title":"Instauratio magna. Pars secunda: novum organum","author":"Bacon F","year":"1620"},{"key":"bibr20-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Klein J. Statistical visions in time: a history of time series analysis 1662-1938.  Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press,  1997, pp. 28\u2013 47."},{"key":"bibr21-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472031000143156"},{"key":"bibr22-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Graunt did not use the word \u2018data\u2019 although the Oxford English Dictionary records its first use in relation to scientific data as 1630."},{"key":"bibr23-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/9781107705647.024"},{"key":"bibr24-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1179\/ldn.1990.15.2.111"},{"key":"bibr25-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-219253-1.50013-0"},{"key":"bibr26-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0018246X17000358"},{"key":"bibr27-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0141076820962060"},{"key":"bibr28-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0141076820956802"},{"key":"bibr29-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Hald A. A history of probability and statistics and their applications before 1750.  Hoboken, New Jersey:  John Wiley & Sons,  2003, pp. 81\u2013 104,  495."},{"key":"bibr30-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1179\/174963207X227578"},{"key":"bibr31-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/shm\/hkq042"},{"key":"bibr32-09677720221079826","volume-title":"Fumifugium, or, the inconvenience of the aer and smoak of London dissipated","author":"Evelyn J","year":"1661"},{"key":"bibr33-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00022470.1976.10470341"},{"key":"bibr34-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Smith R. John Graunt, the law of natural decline and the origins of urban historical demography. Lecture at Gresham College, 29 November 2012. https:\/\/www.gresham.ac.uk\/lectures-and-events\/john-graunt-the-law-of-decline-and-the-origins-of-urban-historical-demography (accessed 25 November 2021)."},{"key":"bibr35-09677720221079826","first-page":"45","volume":"36","author":"Clarke E","year":"1962","journal-title":"Bulletin of the History of Medicine"},{"key":"bibr36-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Graunt does not use the word miasm although the Oxford English Dictionary shows it to have been in use at this time."},{"key":"bibr37-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Petty also proposed a central government statistical office and census to collect more comprehensive data and to improve its accuracy and consistency. Sharp LG.\n                      Sir William Petty and some aspects of seventeenth century natural philosophy\n                      . D. Phil Thesis, University of Oxford,  1977, pp. 151\u2013 152,  346."},{"key":"bibr38-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2597762"},{"key":"bibr39-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Grey A (ed). Debates of the House of Commons from the year 1667 to the year 1694, vol.  4.  London:  D. Henry, R. Cave, J. Emonson,  1763, pp. 9\u2013 10."},{"key":"bibr40-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/459650"},{"key":"bibr41-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstl.1693.0007"},{"key":"bibr42-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S002026810001564X"},{"key":"bibr43-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31827b5359"},{"key":"bibr44-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ref:odnb\/26864"},{"key":"bibr45-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/351715"},{"key":"bibr46-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2709780"},{"key":"bibr47-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0010417500003972"},{"key":"bibr48-09677720221079826","first-page":"177","volume":"11","author":"Rhodes R","year":"1994","journal-title":"History of Philosophy Quarterly"},{"key":"bibr49-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Several authors have suggested that Petty may have had a major input to earlier editions but these suggestions were disproved by Glass\n                      2\n                      and Sutherland\n                      4\n                      in 1963 and more recently Slack has drawn attention to several statements in the work with which Petty would have fundamentally disagreed.\n                      26\n                      Some minor additions to the fifth edition were probably the work of Petty."},{"key":"bibr50-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1163\/9789004333512_001"},{"key":"bibr51-09677720221079826","first-page":"359","volume":"2","year":"1666","journal-title":"Le Journal des S\u00e7avans"},{"key":"bibr52-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Journal des s\u00e7avans\n                      . https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Journal_des_s%C3%A7avans (accessed 25 November 2021)."},{"key":"bibr53-09677720221079826","first-page":"214","volume":"4","year":"1771","journal-title":"Medical Observations and Inquiries"},{"key":"bibr54-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Jurin J. The correspondence of James Jurin (1684-1750) physician and secretary to the Royal Society. Ed. A. Rusnock.  Amsterdam:  Rodopi,  1996, p. 126."},{"key":"bibr55-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/9781107705647.030"},{"key":"bibr56-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3917\/pope.1103.0611"},{"key":"bibr57-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10739-013-9366-8"},{"key":"bibr58-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400844227"},{"key":"bibr59-09677720221079826","volume-title":"A collection of the yearly bills of mortality from 1657 to 1758, inclusive","author":"Birch T","year":"1759"},{"key":"bibr60-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511817557.003"},{"key":"bibr61-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472031000147286"},{"key":"bibr62-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Bos HJM. Christiaan Huygens. Cited in:\n                      Complete Dictionary of Scientific Biography\n                      . https:\/\/mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk\/DSB\/Huygens.pdf (accessed 25 November 2021)."},{"key":"bibr63-09677720221079826","unstructured":"63. Kreager\n                      61\n                      citing Huygens C. Oevres compl\u0117tes, vol. \n4. \nThe Hague: \nSocieti\u00e9 Hollandaise des Sciences, \n1891, pp.\n95, \n148\u2013\n152."},{"key":"bibr64-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsnr.1978.0011"},{"key":"bibr65-09677720221079826","unstructured":"That is not to deny his abilities. As Kreager has observed, \u201cthinkers like Graunt showed how arithmetic consisted not only in computational skills\u2026but in a general kind of logic, a method of reasoning astutely and creatively on a whole range of issues.\u201d\n                      61"},{"key":"bibr66-09677720221079826","volume-title":"The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics","author":"Spanos A"},{"key":"bibr67-09677720221079826","volume-title":"The history of the Royal Society of London","volume":"1","author":"Birch T"},{"key":"bibr68-09677720221079826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ref:odnb\/5629"},{"key":"bibr69-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Hunter M. The Royal Society and its Fellows 1660-1700.  Oxford:  St Alden Press,  1994, pp. 154\u2013 155."},{"key":"bibr70-09677720221079826","unstructured":"Fussell M. Archivist to the Worshipful Company of Drapers. 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