{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T21:08:02Z","timestamp":1777928882153,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,5,27]],"date-time":"2015-05-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1432684800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Med Screen"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2013, the Swiss Medical Board (SMB) concluded that for three breast cancer screens over 13 years in Switzerland, cost-effectiveness was negative, with no additional benefits in quality-adjusted life-years gained. We compared these suggested predicted effects with other estimates.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used an extensively validated model on the natural history of breast cancer in Switzerland, comparing a 13-year time frame, a life-time perspective, and a continuous screening programme, per 10,000 Swiss women. Both approaches used the Swedish randomized controlled trials for the theoretical effect.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Over 13 years, both approaches yield comparable life-years gained (56 versus 67), but in expectation in 10,000 women\u2019s lifetimes 444 life-years are gained, and in a continuous screening programme (instead of three screens) 839 years. The SMB estimate of 56 life-years gained is counterweighted by 57 negative quality of life adjusted years, primarily resulting from a 5% annual loss for 10% of women, being false-positive results. International literature is consistent with more than four times lower losses on false-positives. The estimate of overdiagnosed cases in the 13-year time frame was four times higher than in the long-term perspective.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>By restricting life-years gained to a 13-year time frame the SMB prediction on benefits of mammography screening is unrealistically low. Predicting long-term harms and benefits, specifically tailored to observations, regarding the clinical situation before screening commences, and possible data during a screening programme, are crucial for women, professionals, and policymakers.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/0969141315586639","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,5,27]],"date-time":"2015-05-27T21:31:26Z","timestamp":1432762286000},"page":"201-206","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Swiss Medical Board Mammography screening predictions for Switzerland: Importance of time-periods"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"HJ","family":"de Koning","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"EAM","family":"Heijnsdijk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,5,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(99)06065-1"},{"key":"bibr2-0969141315586639","unstructured":"Health Council of the Netherlands. The benefit of population screening for breast cancer with mammography. The Hague:Health Council of the Netherlands, 2002; publication no. 2002\/03E. ISBN 90-5549-413-5."},{"key":"bibr3-0969141315586639","unstructured":"IARC Handbooks of Cancer Prevention. Volume 7 Breast Cancer Screening. Published by the lnternational Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, 2002."},{"key":"bibr4-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-151-10-200911170-00008"},{"issue":"1","key":"bibr5-0969141315586639","first-page":"CD001877","volume":"4","author":"G\u00f8tzsche PC","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cochrane Database Syst Rev"},{"key":"bibr6-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.b2587"},{"key":"bibr7-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1258\/jms.2012.012082"},{"key":"bibr8-0969141315586639","unstructured":"UK Panel. Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening. The benefits and harms of breast cancer screening: an independent review. London: A report jointly commissioned by Cancer Research UK and the Department of Health (England); London, 2012."},{"key":"bibr9-0969141315586639","unstructured":"Health Council of the Netherlands. Population screening for breast cancer: expectations and developments. The Hague: Health Council of the Netherlands, 2014; publication no. 2014\/01. ISBN 978-90-5549-991-5."},{"key":"bibr10-0969141315586639","unstructured":"Fachgremium Swiss Medical Board: Systematisches Mammografie-Screening. Zollikon, 2013. (www.swissmedicalboard.ch)."},{"key":"bibr11-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2008.09.015"},{"key":"bibr12-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp1401875"},{"key":"bibr13-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Broeders M, Moss S, Nystr\u00f6m L, et\u00a0al. for the EUROSCREEN Working Group. The impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe: a review of observational studies.\n                      J Med Screening\n                      2012;\n                      19\n                      Suppl 1:14\u201325.","DOI":"10.1258\/jms.2012.012078"},{"key":"bibr14-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0959-8049(03)00238-7"},{"key":"bibr15-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1524-4733.2006.00143.x"},{"key":"bibr16-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/epirev\/mxr009"},{"key":"bibr17-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.2910490411"},{"key":"bibr18-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1201637"},{"key":"bibr19-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1370\/afm.1466"},{"key":"bibr20-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-146-7-200704030-00006"},{"key":"bibr21-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.pubmed.a024793"},{"key":"bibr22-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jms.6.2.89"},{"key":"bibr23-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.51.6.705"},{"key":"bibr24-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0959-8049(00)00065-4"},{"key":"bibr25-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0959-8049(02)00451-3"},{"key":"bibr26-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0086858"},{"key":"bibr27-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11136-007-9202-8"},{"key":"bibr28-0969141315586639","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.2910490410"},{"key":"bibr29-0969141315586639","unstructured":"Bulliard JL, Zwahlen M, Fracheboud J. 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