{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,18]],"date-time":"2026-10-18T12:40:22Z","timestamp":1792327222836,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1792022400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1792022400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100006095","name":"Helse S\u00f8r-\u00d8st RHF","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2017010"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017010"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100006095","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Med Screen"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Estimates of breast cancer overdiagnosis related to mammography screening vary substantially. Overdiagnosis is commonly defined as cases that would not have been detected during the person's remaining lifetime in the absence of screening. We here aim to quantify overdiagnosis in the population-based BreastScreen Norway mammography screening program using long-term follow-up and more detailed modeling than previous studies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We applied data on Norwegian screening patterns and breast carcinoma incidence for the period 1987\u20132019, covering women aged 49\u201384, leveraging the gradual implementation of the organized biennial BreastScreen Norway screening program for women aged 50\u201369 during 1995\u20132005.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using an extended age-period-cohort model, we estimated excess lifetime risk of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ in the presence of program screening, as an indicator of overdiagnosis among screen-detected cases.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Lifetime risk of breast carcinomas was 6.6% (95% confidence interval: 2.5%\u201310.7%) higher for invited than for non-invited women. This indicates that 18% (95% confidence interval: 7.3%\u201328.0%) of screen-detected cases may be overdiagnosed, and that approximately one in 86 (95% confidence interval: 54\u2013210) screened women were overdiagnosed during their screening period. Using effect estimates from previous studies, we estimated that approximately three women are overdiagnosed for every breast cancer death prevented by screening, and that 87% of overdiagnosed tumors might grow extremely slowly.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Overdiagnosis related to mammography screening is a considerable problem, but its extent may be smaller than reported in some previous studies. Most overdiagnosed tumors likely grow very slowly.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/09691413261494999","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T13:39:33Z","timestamp":1792071573000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Breast cancer overdiagnosis due to mammography screening\u2014A long-term follow-up population study of BreastScreen Norway"],"prefix":"10.1177","author":[{"given":"Torunn","family":"Heggland","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Oslo University Hospital"},{"name":"University of Oslo"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lars J","family":"Vatten","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6593-8433","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Signe","family":"Opdahl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norwegian University of Science and Technology"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9109-0034","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Harald","family":"Weedon-Fekj\u00e6r","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Oslo University Hospital"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.2013.177"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2017.11.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/m21-3577"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-6874-9-36"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1206809"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.38044.666157.63"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2022.06.027"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/epirev\/mxr009"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.31420"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0969141313495190"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2008.10.037"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","volume-title":"Cancer in Norway 2016 - Cancer incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence in Norway","author":"Hofvind S","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hofvind S, Tsuruda K, Mangerud G, et al. The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program, 1996-2016: Celebrating 20 years of organised mammographic screening. In: Cancer in Norway 2016 - Cancer incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence in Norway. Cancer Registry of Norway, 2017."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1148\/radiol.14131502"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.e299"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.20389"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.288.3.321"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","unstructured":"Norwegian Institute of Public Health. 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