{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T12:37:44Z","timestamp":1777466264513,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,20]],"date-time":"2024-12-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1734652800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"funder":[{"name":"Joint Funds for the Innovation of Science and Technology, Fujian Province","award":["2021Y9103\/2021Y93010398"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021Y9103\/2021Y93010398"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Back and Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The accuracy of predicting axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) flares based on clinical experience is limited.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the previously designed nomogram prediction model in forecasting disease flares among rheumatologists and medical students.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Patients who met the classification criteria for axSpA were enrolled in the study. Once a low ankylosing spondylitis disease activity score (ASDAS\u2009\u2264\u20092.1) was achieved, patients were monitored for 12 months to observe any disease flare-ups. Investigators assessed the likelihood of axSpA recurrence using the nomogram prediction model and their clinical experience, respectively. This allowed for a comparison of the predictive efficacy of both methods among the specialists and students.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index in which disease flare-ups were predicted by the rheumatologist using clinical experience were slightly lower than those obtained using the nomogram prediction model, but the difference was not statistically significant (\n                      <jats:italic>P\u2009<\/jats:italic>\n                      &gt;\u20090.05). In contrast, the indicators above by medical students using clinical experience were significantly lower compared to those predicted by the nomogram prediction model (\n                      <jats:italic>P\u2009<\/jats:italic>\n                      &lt;\u20090.05).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The nomogram prediction model is effective in predicting the probability of disease remission and flare-ups in axSpA patients with low disease activity, demonstrating good clinical practicality and usability. Medical students can also use this model to significantly enhance the accuracy of predicting axSpA flares.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/10538127241303356","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,20]],"date-time":"2024-12-20T03:04:49Z","timestamp":1734663889000},"page":"287-293","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Nomogram-Based model accurately predicts disease flare-ups in axial spondyloarthritis"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"38","author":[{"given":"Lianjie Wang Apipu","family":"Thitidechnisa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"Department of Medical Education, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"Overseas Education College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350122, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yifang","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medical Education, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"Overseas Education College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350122, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jing","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"Overseas Education College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350122, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hongbing","family":"Rui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"Overseas Education College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350122, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anesthesiology, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China"},{"name":"Department of Anesthesiology, Fujian Children's Hospital, Fuzhou 350014, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qing","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350000, China"},{"name":"Overseas Education College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350122, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11926-022-01091-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/kep435"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2022.967658"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40744-021-00279-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2010.138594"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2011-201010"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.20575"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.41037"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10067-015-2936-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Predictors of Assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society (ASAS) Health Index in Axial Spondyloarthritis and Comparison of ASAS Health Index between Ankylosing Spondylitis and Nonradiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis: data from the Catholic Axial Spondyloarthritis COhort (CASCO)","volume":"8","author":"Min HK","year":"2019","unstructured":"Min HK, Lee J, Ju JH, et al. Predictors of Assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society (ASAS) Health Index in Axial Spondyloarthritis and Comparison of ASAS Health Index between Ankylosing Spondylitis and Nonradiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis: data from the Catholic Axial Spondyloarthritis COhort (CASCO). J Clin Med 2019; 8: 1\u201311.","journal-title":"J Clin Med"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3402\/ecrj.v1.26422"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2016-210770"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rheumatology\/ken176"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","first-page":"195","article-title":"Defining and managing flares in axial spondyloarthritis","volume":"34","author":"Aouad K","year":"2022","unstructured":"Aouad K, Gossec L. Defining and managing flares in axial spondyloarthritis. 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