{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T17:38:41Z","timestamp":1777484321958,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,1]],"date-time":"2022-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1667260800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009543","name":"Pontificia Universidad Javeriana","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Convenio PPTA7602"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Convenio PPTA7602"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009543","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Cancerolog\u00eda E.S.E.","award":["41030110020 (2016), C190103001-15 (2017-2018)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41030110020 (2016), C190103001-15 (2017-2018)"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016018","name":"Universidad El Bosque","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Convenio UEB.453-2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Convenio UEB.453-2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016018","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Cancer Control"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To evaluate the potential impact of tobacco reduction on future cancer incidence in Colombia<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Colombia has implemented multiple actions that led to reducing smoking prevalence in recent years. However, the numbers of cancer cases and deaths associated with smoking exposure remain high highlighting the importance of maintaining efforts to reduce and keep smoking prevalence low.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We performed a theoretical modeling exercise, projecting expected changes in the incidence of four cancers between 2016 and 2050 under two simulated scenarios of smoking reduction.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A cumulative decline of 10% in the prevalence of smoking, a percentage in line with current cigarette taxation policies, will decrease cancer incidence in 2050 by 3.2%, .5%, .2% and .2% of lung, liver, cervical and colorectal cancer incidence, respectively. Complete elimination of tobacco consumption will reduce these by 39.1%, 6.1%, 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, by 2050.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These results highlight the importance of continuity and reinforcement of current tobacco control programs, including increasing taxation, to further reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking and reduce cancer cases and deaths in the coming decades.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/10732748221121390","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,23]],"date-time":"2022-11-23T02:33:26Z","timestamp":1669170806000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modelling the Reduction in Cancer Incidence After Variations in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption in Colombia in the Period 2016-2050"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"29","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7740-8141","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sandra","family":"Perdomo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Nutrition, Genetics and Metabolism Group, Universidad El Bosque, Bogot\u00e1, Colombia"},{"name":"Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juli\u00e1n","family":"L\u00f3pez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Nutrition, Genetics and Metabolism Group, Universidad El Bosque, Bogot\u00e1, Colombia"},{"name":"Grupo de Investigaci\u00f3n en Salud P\u00fablica, Universidad del Rosario, Bogot\u00e1, Colombia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Miguel Zamir","family":"Torres-Ibarg\u00fcen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo de Apoyo y Seguimiento para la Investigaci\u00f3n, Instituto Nacional de Cancerolog\u00eda, Bogot\u00e1, Colombia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Devi Nereida","family":"Puerto-Jim\u00e9nez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo \u00c1rea Salud P\u00fablica, Instituto Nacional de Cancerolog\u00eda, Bogot\u00e1, Colombia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5560-2258","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Esther","family":"de Vries","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogot\u00e1, Colombia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-10732748221121390","volume-title":"The 2018 update, Global Health Workforce Statistics","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2018"},{"key":"bibr2-10732748221121390","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lungcan.2020.12.007"},{"key":"bibr3-10732748221121390","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21492"},{"key":"bibr4-10732748221121390","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21660"},{"key":"bibr5-10732748221121390","volume-title":"Estudio Nacional de Consumo de Sustancias Psicoactivas en Colombia - 2013","volume":"180","author":"Ministerio de Justicia y del D","year":"2014"},{"key":"bibr6-10732748221121390","unstructured":"Dane. 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