{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,10]],"date-time":"2026-07-10T11:15:56Z","timestamp":1783682156744,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Cancer Control"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2013, the United States (U.S.) Preventive Services Task Force recommended low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung-cancer screening. We assessed temporal, population-level changes in incidence, stage at diagnosis, and mortality before and after this recommendation among adults aged 55\u201379 years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data WONDER (CDC WONDER), Global Burden of Disease (GBD), and SEER data, we examined age-adjusted incidence (AAIR) and mortality (AAMR) trends. Joinpoint regression and interrupted time-series (ITS) models evaluated pre- and post-2014 changes in population-level trends; counterfactual analyses estimated differences between observed outcomes and projections based on pre-2014 trends. SEER was used to characterize stage distributions (localized, regional, distant).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Post-2014 declines accelerated across data systems. Annual AAMR decreased by 3.03% in CDC WONDER and 2.58% in GBD; AAIR declined by 1.85% and 2.37%, respectively. SEER showed a higher proportion of localized disease and fewer distant-stage diagnoses after 2014; joinpoint analyses identified a 2013 inflection with steeper declines in distant-stage incidence thereafter. In models extrapolating pre-2014 trends to subsequent years, observed deaths were lower than counterfactual projections by 28,168 in CDC WONDER and 6,906 in GBD. As an exploratory indicator, mortality-to-incidence ratios declined nationally and in both sexes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>During the USPSTF LDCT guideline era, independent national datasets showed accelerated mortality declines and a shift toward localized-stage diagnoses. These convergent findings are temporally consistent with real-world benefits of LDCT screening, but they should be interpreted within a broader context that includes continued reductions in smoking, gradual screening uptake, and major therapeutic advances. The findings are hypothesis-generating and do not estimate the isolated causal effect of LDCT screening.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/10732748261467137","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T04:57:34Z","timestamp":1783486654000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Population-Level Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality and Stage Distribution During the USPSTF LDCT Guideline Era: A Multi-Database Quasi-Experimental Study"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Kaide","family":"Xia","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Molecular Genetic Diagnostics, Guiyang Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Guiyang Children\u2019s Hospital"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-1795-1826","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Junwen","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Second People\u2019s Hospital of Guiyang"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_7_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.20107"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21208"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2021.1117"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M13-2771"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1102873"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1911793"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21239"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2018.6405"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/003335491412900611"},{"issue":"127","key":"e_1_3_7_11_2","first-page":"39869","article-title":"Employee Benefits Security Administration, Department of Labor, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Department of Health and Human Services. Coverage of certain preventive services under the affordable care act. Final rules","volume":"78","author":"Internal Revenue Service, Department of the Treasury","year":"2013","unstructured":"Internal Revenue Service, Department of the Treasury. Employee Benefits Security Administration, Department of Labor, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Department of Health and Human Services. Coverage of certain preventive services under the affordable care act. Final rules. Fed Regist. 2013;78(127):39869\u201339899.","journal-title":"Fed Regist"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2021.0377"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7218a1"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.32802"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/GO.23.00255"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djab131"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4178\/epih.e2017006"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/ckq120"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JGO.19.00038"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1054200"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_21_2","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC WONDER. Published online June 13 2025. https:\/\/wonder.cdc.gov\/"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_23_2","unstructured":"National Cancer Institute DCCPS Surveillance Research Program. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER). Incidence - SEER Research Limited-Field Data 21 Registrie. Published online April 2025. Program. www.seer.cancer.gov)SEER*StatDatabase"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1183\/23120541.00311-2021"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2024.103033"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtho.2015.09.009"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.34978"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Population Estimates 1950-2019. Published online 2020. doi:10.6069\/7EGY-0354.","DOI":"10.6069\/7EGY-0354"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2007.11.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCOUTCOMES.124.011459"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-39440-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(19)30329-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10900-020-00826-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers15123111"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/thx.2010.151621"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ccm.2021.04.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21654"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.athoracsur.2022.11.021"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11606-020-05951-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/ckz216"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chest.2022.03.031"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(21)00210-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00408-018-0110-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cllc.2022.11.005"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.athoracsur.2024.07.041"}],"container-title":["Cancer Control"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/10732748261467137","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/10732748261467137","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/10732748261467137","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,10]],"date-time":"2026-07-10T10:47:52Z","timestamp":1783680472000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/10732748261467137"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"references-count":44,"alternative-id":["10.1177\/10732748261467137"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/10732748261467137","relation":{},"ISSN":["1073-2748","1526-2359"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1073-2748","type":"print"},{"value":"1526-2359","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"article-number":"10732748261467137"}}