{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T06:09:08Z","timestamp":1787724548345,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":79,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,16]],"date-time":"2022-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668556800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sex Abuse"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20\u00a0years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk\/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs ( n = 190, average age of 38\u00a0years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5\u00a0years (Static-99R, E\/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E\/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20\u00a0years: Static-99R, E\/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E\/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20\u00a0years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%\u201370% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/10790632221139166","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,16]],"date-time":"2022-11-16T05:25:16Z","timestamp":1668576316000},"page":"3-32","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"36","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0920-884X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"R. Karl","family":"Hanson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada"},{"name":"SAARNA: Society for the Advancement of Actuarial Risk Need Assessment, ON, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Seung C.","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"SAARNA: Society for the Advancement of Actuarial Risk Need Assessment, ON, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0127-1104","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David","family":"Thornton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"SAARNA: Society for the Advancement of Actuarial Risk Need Assessment, ON, Canada"},{"name":"FAsTR LLC, Madison, WI, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-10790632221139166","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bsl.2494"},{"key":"bibr2-10790632221139166","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5964\/sotrap.3123"},{"key":"bibr3-10790632221139166","volume-title":"Recidivism of sex offenders released from state prison: A 9-year follow-up (2005-14). 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