{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,9]],"date-time":"2026-06-09T15:53:11Z","timestamp":1781020391997,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,1]],"date-time":"2025-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1751328000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,1]],"date-time":"2025-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1751328000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A decline in driving skills is well documented in people with dementia.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To provide a current estimate and future forecast of drivers with dementia in Ontario, Canada, taking into account sex differences and longitudinal estimates of driving cessation in dementia.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used historical provincial licensing data, population estimates and projections, as well as estimates of diagnosable dementia from the Landmark study of the Alzheimer's Society of Canada to create current estimates and forecasts of drivers with dementia in the province of Ontario, the most populous province of Canada, from 2024 to 2046. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the impact of sex and assumptions regarding the rate of driving cessation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Assuming that an estimated 35% of people with diagnosable dementia stop driving very shortly after symptom onset followed by a more gradual decline over time, and that females stop driving twice as fast as men, we forecast approximately 154,000 drivers with dementia in the province of Ontario in 2046.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>As dementia prevalence increases, our study provides a novel set of projections for drivers with dementia over the coming two decades, estimating a 221% to 226% increase. This work adds to the myriad of concerns about health and public services that will be needed to treat and support this population effectively, to detect early signs of dangerous driving among the cognitively impaired, and to provide alternative transportation options, once driving is no longer viable.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/13872877251344873","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,4]],"date-time":"2025-06-04T03:30:02Z","timestamp":1749007802000},"page":"756-764","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Drivers with dementia: Forecasting the future"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"106","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2670-1975","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mark","family":"Rapoport","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, Termerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"},{"name":"Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Staff Psychiatrist, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick A","family":"Byrne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ontario Ministry of Transportation, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kim","family":"Pho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ontario Ministry of Transportation, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gary","family":"Naglie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Medicine and Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"},{"name":"Department of Medicine and Rotman Research Institute, Baycrest Health Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/geronb\/gbx147"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11920-018-0879-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.051707"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jagp.2017.05.007"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00415-017-8489-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1532-5415.2007.01177.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jgs.13931"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/geronb\/55.6.S334"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1532-5415.1997.tb04508.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1440-1630.12258"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1041610213001464"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/geront\/gnaa034"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/070674370404900704"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","first-page":"1185","article-title":"Meta-analysis of driving cessation and dementia: does sex matter?","volume":"73","author":"Baines N","year":"2018","unstructured":"Baines N, Au B, Rapoport MJ, et al. Meta-analysis of driving cessation and dementia: does sex matter? J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 2018; 73: 1185\u20131189.","journal-title":"J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jalz.2017.11.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_17_2","unstructured":"Statistics Canada. Population Estimates on July 1st by Age and Gender 2023 https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/t1\/tbl1\/en\/tv.action?pid=1710000501 (2023 accessed 5 November 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_18_2","unstructured":"Ontario Ministry of Finance. Ontario Population Projections https:\/\/www.ontario.ca\/page\/ontario-population-projections (2023 accessed 5 November 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_19_2","unstructured":"Alzheimer\u2019s Society of Canada. Navigating the Path Forward for Dementia in Canada: The Landmark Study Report #1 https:\/\/alzheimer.ca\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/Landmark-Study-Report-1-Path_Alzheimer-Society-Canada_0.pdf (2022 accessed 5 November 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/geroni\/igad104.0283"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.062546"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/WAD.0000000000000212"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/alz.12962"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2196\/jmir.9126"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1041610218002326"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S104161021500085X"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S095925981500009X"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.92.8.1284"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3928\/00989134-20201209-01"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2147\/CIA.S236998"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2012.05.031"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5770\/cgj.17.109"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/15389580801895186"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000005022"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsa1114310"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2011.09.032"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/geront\/gnab174"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-818685-5.00008-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/j.ctv1198zhj.15"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11606-018-4377-y"}],"container-title":["Journal of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/13872877251344873","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/13872877251344873","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/13872877251344873","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,28]],"date-time":"2026-04-28T10:10:49Z","timestamp":1777371049000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/13872877251344873"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/13872877251344873"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/13872877251344873","relation":{},"ISSN":["1387-2877","1875-8908"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1387-2877","type":"print"},{"value":"1875-8908","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]}}}