{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,28]],"date-time":"2026-04-28T17:39:39Z","timestamp":1777397979615,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,3]],"date-time":"2025-10-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759449600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100021068","name":"Universidad de Las Am\u00e9ricas Ecuador","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100021068","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Centro de Inmunolog\u00eda Molecular"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Adaptive clinical trials enable modifications to the study design based on accumulating evidence. The Bayesian predictive probability approach offers a framework for estimating the likelihood of achieving a successful outcome in a future analysis, based on current interim data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To estimate the predictive probability of success for binary outcomes in patients with Alzheimer's disease or Ataxia treated with NeuroEPO plus.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A retrospective Bayesian analysis was conducted using data from exploratory phase II trials as prior information for confirmatory phase III trials in Alzheimer's disease. Predictive probabilities were calculated at interim points with sample sizes of 50, 100, 150, and 176 patients.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The analysis demonstrated that the trial could have been stopped early due to a high probability of success or failures before reaching the full planned sample size.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Bayesian predictive probability is a valuable tool for decision-making in rare diseases, particularly when alternative treatments are limited or ineffective, or when baseline heterogeneity affects outcomes unevenly. This approach enhances interim evaluations by incorporating historical or non-informative priors, allowing for more accurate and efficient trial designs.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/13872877251382608","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,3]],"date-time":"2025-10-03T18:03:15Z","timestamp":1759514595000},"page":"1222-1230","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Bayesian predictive probability for binary outcomes in neurodegenerative diseases"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"108","author":[{"given":"Carmen","family":"Viada","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0844-199X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martha","family":"Fors","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidad de las Am\u00e9ricas, Facultad de Ciencias de La Salud, Escuela de Medicina, Quito, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eliseo","family":"Capote","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yanela","family":"Santiesteban","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuliannis","family":"Santiesteban","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Daymys","family":"Est\u00e9vez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Teresita","family":"Rodr\u00edguez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Leslie","family":"P\u00e9rez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Molecular Immunology, Habana, Cuba"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","first-page":"52","article-title":"Impacto del tratamiento con NeuroEPO en la evaluaci\u00f3n neuropsicol\u00f3gica de pacientes con Alzheimer","volume":"6","author":"Amable NU","year":"2023","unstructured":"Amable NU, P\u00e9rez SS, Brito DL, et al. 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