{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,2]],"date-time":"2026-06-02T09:04:50Z","timestamp":1780391090222,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777852800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADODs) are increasing rapidly with population aging, yet region-specific projections for the Western Pacific remain limited.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To project ADOD disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and deaths in the Western Pacific to 2050 and evaluate how modifying key risk factors could inform policy and planning.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 scenario framework, we modeled ADOD burden for 37 Western Pacific countries\/areas (2023\u20132050), stratified by age and sex. Primary outcomes were all-age DALY and death rates per 100,000. Projections included a reference and four counterfactual scenarios. Uncertainty was estimated using 1000 Monte Carlo draws, summarized with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Regional DALY rates rise from 777.6 (95% UI 375.5\u20131714.8) in 2023 to 1980.9 (964.7\u20134176.9) in 2050 (+154.7%), while death rates increase from 41.1 (10.5\u2013110.2) to 119.7 (30.5\u2013302.8) (+191.3%). Female rates exceed male rates throughout, widening absolute sex gaps. By 2050, ages 80\u201394 account for \u223c62% of DALYs and \u223c69% of deaths; \u226595 contribute \u223c10% and \u223c17%. Japan remains highest, while the Republic of Korea approaches comparable levels. China and Singapore show the steepest absolute increases. Scenario curves remain similar until the 2040s; small differences by 2050 reflect survival-driven cohort expansion at high-risk ages.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Demographic aging will dominate Western Pacific dementia burden through mid-century. Prevention remains critical to delay onset, compress disability, and improve overall healthy aging, but demographic aging will still drive substantial growth in service needs. Health systems must scale dementia-capable primary care, long-term and palliative services, caregiver support, and gender-responsive planning.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/13872877261441774","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T15:07:16Z","timestamp":1777907236000},"page":"1200-1211","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Projected burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in the Western Pacific, 2023\u20132050"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"111","author":[{"given":"Roy Rillera","family":"Marzo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Humanities and Health Sciences, Curtin University Malaysia, Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Man","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qizhi","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hana","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Humanities and Health Sciences, Curtin University Malaysia, Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rany","family":"Sam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National University of Battambang, Battambang Province, Cambodia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maryam","family":"Farooqui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universiti Sains Malaysia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Manah Chandra","family":"Changmai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Dundee"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhumabekova","family":"Bibigul","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Margulan University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aubakirova","family":"Karlygash","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9214-660X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Titik","family":"Respati","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Islam Bandung, Indonesia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dandan","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Emergency intensive care unit, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongpeng","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wegayehu","family":"Sheferaw","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Research Institute, Faculty of Health Science, University of Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Bruce, Australia"},{"name":"Mizan-Tepi University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-6805-5497","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zelalem Meraf","family":"Wolde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Injibara University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(24)00264-X"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12888-024-06375-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(21)00249-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fnagi.2022.937486"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","first-page":"101202","article-title":"Understanding dementia in the Western Pacific: a region-specific approach to prevention","volume":"50","author":"Gong J","year":"2024","unstructured":"Gong J. 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