{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T23:39:24Z","timestamp":1777937964464,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,12]],"date-time":"2025-03-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1741737600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005416","name":"Norges Forskningsr\u00e5d","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["275270"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["275270"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005416","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Scand J Public Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Hip fracture burden is expected to increase due to the ageing population. Given that hip fracture incidence differs by educational attainment, and that a shift in the older population\u2019s educational level will manifest itself in coming decades, we investigated future hip fracture trends in Norway and their variation by attained educational level.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Estimated annual hip fracture numbers in the population aged 50+ years in 2020\u20132050 were based on information from the Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies hip fracture database and official population projections from Statistics Norway. Projected educational attainment was obtained from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital. We explored two scenarios: first, assuming that the observed 2019 rates remain constant until 2050, and second, assuming a continuing rate of decline corresponding to that observed during 1999\u20132019.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The projections showed that the annual number of hip fractures will increase by 91% in women and 131% in men given constant sex- and age-specific rates, and by 27% in women and 66% in men given declining rates. The majority of hip fractures are expected in the group with secondary education, however, the numbers will increase steeply in people with tertiary education due to the temporal shift in educational attainment.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:bold>The annual number of hip fractures may double by 2050, placing high demands on the healthcare services. The majority of hip fractures are projected to occur in people with secondary and tertiary education. It is vital to intensify preventive efforts, not least in the high-risk populations.<\/jats:bold>\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/14034948251325760","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,13]],"date-time":"2025-03-13T02:02:56Z","timestamp":1741831376000},"page":"150-156","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Forecasting the burden of hip fracture in Norway towards 2050 by educational level: The Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS)"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"54","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3824-4927","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Helena K.","family":"Kjeldgaard","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physical Health and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tone K.","family":"Omsland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Community Medicine and Global Health, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Vegard F.","family":"Skirbekk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway"},{"name":"Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"O\u2019flaherty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Haakon E.","family":"Meyer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physical Health and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway"},{"name":"Department of Community Medicine and Global Health, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3132-2822","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kristin","family":"Holvik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physical Health and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-004-1627-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)00516-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jbmr.2218"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jbmr.4821"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-014-2781-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bone.2019.115156"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-015-3054-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-021-06038-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-024-07133-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-155-2-201107190-00005"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","unstructured":"OECD. OECD indicators: education at a glance 2023 https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/education-at-a-glance-2023_e13bef63-en.html (2023 accessed 4 March 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","unstructured":"Statistics Norway. Educational attainment of the population 2023. https:\/\/www.ssb.no\/en\/utdanning\/utdanningsniva\/statistikk\/befolkningens-utdanningsniva. (2024 accessed 15 March 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","article-title":"Impact of total hip replacements on the incidence of hip fractures in Norway during 1999\u20132019. A Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS) study","volume":"37","author":"Kjeldgaard HK","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kjeldgaard HK, Meyer HE, O\u2019Flaherty M, et al. Impact of total hip replacements on the incidence of hip fractures in Norway during 1999\u20132019. A Norwegian Epidemiologic Osteoporosis Studies (NOREPOS) study. 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