{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T11:10:45Z","timestamp":1779189045322,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,8]],"date-time":"2025-09-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757289600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,8]],"date-time":"2025-09-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757289600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Scand J Public Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Norwegian Institute of Public Health calculated excess mortality for Norway in 2024 using a reference period that included 2023\u2014a year with significant excess mortality\u2014and concluded there was no excess mortality in 2024. This study estimates excess mortality in 2024 using only pre-pandemic years as the reference, providing a basis for identifying excess COVID-19 related mortality.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We estimated excess mortality in 2024 using a negative binomial model trained on 2010\u20132019 data. Deaths were modelled by age (0, 1\u201319, 20\u201339, 40\u201364, 65\u201379, 80\u201389 and 90+ years) and sex, with population offsets. Expected mortality was projected using both a conservative approach where the prediction for 2023 was carried forward to 2024 and a non-conservative linear extrapolation to 2024.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The conservative approach estimated 2898 excess deaths (7.0%; 95% prediction interval (PI), 4.9\u20139.1%) in 2024. Significant excess mortality was observed in age groups 1\u201319 (45 deaths; 36.6% excess), 20\u201339 (107 deaths; 17.6% excess), 40\u201364 (439 deaths; 10.6% excess) and 65\u201379 (1631 deaths; 13.7% excess). Ages 1\u201339 and 40\u201364 accounted for approximately 5% and 15% of total excess mortality, respectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:bold>Persistent excess mortality from 2022 to 2024 suggests a new elevated mortality baseline and a reduction or reversal of Norway\u2019s pre-pandemic mortality decline. Although multiple factors may contribute, given sustained excess mortality since 2022, our findings suggest that the unmitigated spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway since 2022 can be associated with increased mortality, particularly for those under 65<\/jats:bold>\n                      .\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/14034948251371830","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T06:28:06Z","timestamp":1757399286000},"page":"418-424","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Excess all-cause mortality in Norway in 2024"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"54","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6747-1726","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Richard Aubrey","family":"White","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Researcher, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anders B.","family":"Nygaard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Arne","family":"S\u00f8raas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3549-5480","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gunhild A.","family":"Nyborg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"T\u00f8mmer\u00e5s AM Thomas MJ. Nasjonale befolkningsframskrivinger 2024 (National Population Projections 2024) [Internet]. Statistics Norway https:\/\/www.ssb.no\/befolkning\/befolkningsframskrivinger\/artikler\/nasjonale-befolkningsframskrivinger-2024\/_\/attachment\/inline\/56957464-1d50-49e9-bc81-2dc79db88829:fcbe4afe4b905e2b91a7a998b90c23d392d44ddc\/RAPP2024-21.pdf (2024 accessed 7 August 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"Knudsen AKS C Madsen Forthun I et al. D\u00f8delighet i Norge under koronapandemien 2020\u20132022 (Mortality in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020\u20132022). Rapport 2023. Oslo: Folkehelseinstituttet 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","unstructured":"Todal PA. Med smitte skal landet vernast (Through infection the country shall be protected) [Internet]. 2024 [cited 2025 Mar 27]. https:\/\/www.dagogtid.no\/samfunn\/med-smitte-skal-landet-vernast\/143147 (2024 accessed 27 March 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","unstructured":"Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Epidemier av luftveisinfeksjoner i Norge vinteren 2023\u201324: risiko scenarioer og h\u00e5ndtering (Epidemics of respiratory infections in Norway in winter 2023\u201324: Risks scenarios and handling). Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo; 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","unstructured":"Helse og omsorgsdepartementet. Regjeringen.no. regjeringen.no. Regjeringens strategi og beredskapsplan for h\u00e5ndteringen av covid-19-pandemien (The government\u2019s strategy and preparedness plan for handling the COVID-19 pandemic). https:\/\/www.regjeringen.no\/no\/dokumentarkiv\/regjeringen-stoere\/andre-dokumenter\/hod\/2023\/regjeringens-strategi-og-beredskapsplan-for-handteringen-av-covid-19-pandemien\/id2987438\/ (2023 accessed 27 March 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","unstructured":"World Health Organisation. Clinical management of COVID-19: living guideline 18 August 2023. Geneva: World Health Organisation 2023 186 p."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.28568"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-024-02987-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","article-title":"Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against post-covid-19 condition among 589 722 individuals in Sweden: population based cohort study","volume":"22","author":"Lundberg-Morris L","year":"2023","unstructured":"Lundberg-Morris L, Leach S, Xu Y, et al. Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against post-covid-19 condition among 589 722 individuals in Sweden: population based cohort study. BMJ 2023; 22: e076990.","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-45953-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-84140-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.59672"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","unstructured":"Knudsen AKS Forthun I Madsen C et al. D\u00f8delighet i Norge under koronapandemien 2020\u20132023 (Mortality in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020\u20132023). Rapport 2023. Oslo: Folkehelseinstituttet 2024."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","unstructured":"Folkehelseinstituttet [Internet]. D\u00f8ds\u00e5rsaker i Norge 2023 (Causes of death in Norway 2023). https:\/\/www.fhi.no\/publ\/2024\/dodsarsaker-i-norge-2023\/ (2024 accessed 27 March 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","unstructured":"Folkehelseinstituttet [Internet]. D\u00f8delighet i Norge (Mortality in Norway). https:\/\/www.fhi.no\/he\/folkehelserapporten\/samfunn\/dodelighet\/ (2025 accessed 27 March 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","unstructured":"Folkehelseinstituttet [Internet]. D\u00f8deligheten tilbake til niv\u00e5et f\u00f8r pandemien (Mortality is back to the level before the pandemic). https:\/\/www.fhi.no\/nyheter\/2025\/dodeligheten-tilbake-til-nivaet-for-pandemien\/ (2025 accessed 27 March 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v100.i05"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","first-page":"395","article-title":"Advanced Bayesian multilevel modeling with the R package brms","volume":"10","author":"B\u00fcrkner PC.","year":"2018","unstructured":"B\u00fcrkner PC. Advanced Bayesian multilevel modeling with the R package brms. 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Excess primary healthcare consultations in Norway in 2024 compared to pre-COVID-19-pandemic baseline trends [Internet]. https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-7184987\/v1 (2025 accessed 7 August 2025).","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-7184987\/v1"}],"container-title":["Scandinavian Journal of Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/14034948251371830","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/14034948251371830","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/14034948251371830","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T10:57:10Z","timestamp":1779188230000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/14034948251371830"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,8]]},"references-count":24,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/14034948251371830"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/14034948251371830","relation":{},"ISSN":["1403-4948","1651-1905"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1403-4948","type":"print"},{"value":"1651-1905","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,8]]}}}