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The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model to estimate the individual probability of emergency admission in the next 12 months within a regional population. We deterministically linked routinely collected data from secondary care with population level data, resulting in a comprehensive research dataset of 190,466 individuals. The resulting risk prediction tool is based on a logistic regression model with five independent variables. The model indicated a discrimination of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9384 (95% CI 0.9325\u20130.9443). We also experimented with different probability cut-off points for identifying high risk patients and found the model\u2019s overall prediction accuracy to be over 95% throughout. In summary, the internally validated model we developed can predict with high accuracy the individual risk of emergency admission to hospital within the next year. Its relative simplicity makes it easily implementable within a decision support tool to assist with the management of individual patients in the community. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/14604582221101538","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,20]],"date-time":"2022-05-20T18:22:59Z","timestamp":1653070979000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Developing and validating a predictive model for future emergency hospital admissions"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3445-724X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Neophytos","family":"Stylianou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health care Innovation and Improvement (CHI2), School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, UK; RTD-Talos, Lefkosia, Cyprus"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Young","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bath and North East Somerset, Swindon & Wiltshire NHS Clinical Commissioning Group, Bath, UK"}]},{"given":"Carol J","family":"Peden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gehr Family Center for Health System Sciences and Innovation, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA"}]},{"given":"Christos","family":"Vasilakis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health Care Innovation and Improvement (CHI2), School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, UK"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-14604582221101538","volume-title":"Reducing emergency admisisons","author":"National Audit Office","year":"2018"},{"key":"bibr2-14604582221101538","volume-title":"Trends in emergency admissions in England 2004-2009","author":"Blunt I","year":"2010"},{"key":"bibr3-14604582221101538","volume-title":"Choosing a predictive risk model : a guide for commissioners in England","volume":"20","author":"Lewis G","year":"2011"},{"key":"bibr4-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-015676"},{"key":"bibr5-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/pubmed\/fdt009"},{"key":"bibr6-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/qshc.2007.023622"},{"key":"bibr7-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MLR.0000000000000171"},{"key":"bibr8-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/bja\/aes165"},{"key":"bibr9-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jamcollsurg.2012.06.004"},{"key":"bibr10-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.2017.0479"},{"key":"bibr11-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5811\/westjem.2017.5.33593"},{"key":"bibr12-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2017.2657"},{"key":"bibr13-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.010270"},{"key":"bibr14-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.330.7492.657"},{"key":"bibr15-14604582221101538","first-page":"688","volume":"332","author":"Eaton L","year":"2006","journal-title":"BMJ Br Med J"},{"key":"bibr16-14604582221101538","first-page":"1","author":"Kolbasovsky A","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am J Manag Care"},{"key":"bibr17-14604582221101538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0170061"},{"key":"bibr18-14604582221101538","volume-title":"Enhanced service specification Avoiding unplanned admissions: proactive case finding and patient review for vulnerable people","author":"NHS England","year":"2014"},{"key":"bibr19-14604582221101538","volume-title":"Enhanced service specification Avoiding unplanned admissions: proactive case finding and patient review for vulnerable people 2015\/16","author":"NHS England","year":"2015"},{"key":"bibr20-14604582221101538","volume-title":"Enhanced service specification - 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