{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,5]],"date-time":"2026-05-05T00:10:14Z","timestamp":1777939814712,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,6,1]],"date-time":"2007-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1180656000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["New Media &amp; Society"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Communication studies pay little attention to futures research, while there is a lack of communication knowledge in futures research.This article discusses the function of futures research and ways to embed domain knowledge in predictions. First, it looks at futures research in relation to the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in households in 2010. Second, it incorporates communication knowledge based on the vision of experts. It is interested in the ways in which the contextual factors of the adoption and use of ICT can be taken into account. Scenarios take social changes, political and regulatory trends into account and draw alternative, divergent pictures of a future context within which the adoption, domestication, use and effects of new technologies will take place.Through the use of scenarios different contexts can be described in which the impact of specific technologies can be analysed, making use of the know-how of communication scholars.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/1461444807076964","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,5,15]],"date-time":"2007-05-15T07:18:43Z","timestamp":1179213523000},"page":"379-399","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Futures research, communication and the use of information and communication technology in households in 2010: a reassessment"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Harry","family":"Bouwman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Patrick Van","family":"Der Duin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands,"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1009679025919"},{"key":"atypb2","volume-title":"Forecasting. An Appraisal for Strategy-makers and Planners","author":"Ascher, W.A.","year":"1979"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1471-7727(01)00013-6"},{"issue":"1","key":"atypb4","first-page":"67","volume":"3","author":"Bakardjieva, M.","year":"2001","journal-title":"New Media & Society"},{"key":"atypb5","volume-title":"(eds) The Social Construction of Technological Systems","author":"Bijker, W.E.","year":"1987"},{"key":"atypb6","volume-title":"Communication in the Age of Virtual Reality","author":"Biocca, F.","year":"1995"},{"key":"atypb7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/comm.2003.006"},{"key":"atypb8","unstructured":"Bouwman, H. and A. de Jong (1996) `Predicting Consumer Adoption of Information Technologies ', in N. Jankowski and L. Hanssen (eds) The Contours of Multimedia. Recent Technological,Theoretical and Empirical Developments, pp. 160\u201472. Luton: University of Luton Press."},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/14636680310494717"},{"key":"atypb10","volume-title":"Informatie en communicatietechnologie in huis. De Magnetron als Informatiebron.Trends in Informatie- en Communicatietechnologie in de Huiselijke Omgeving in het jaar 2010 [Information and Communication Technology in the Home.The Microwave as a Source of Information.Trends in Information and Communication Technology in the Home Environment in the Year 2010]","author":"Bouwman H.","year":"2000"},{"key":"atypb11","volume-title":"ICT in Organizations","author":"Bouwman, H.","year":"2005"},{"issue":"5","key":"atypb12","first-page":"39","volume":"94","author":"Brody, H.","year":"1991","journal-title":"Technology Review"},{"key":"atypb13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/MCOM.1989.34693"},{"key":"atypb14","volume-title":"Dot.con. How America Lost its Mind and Money in the Internet Era","author":"Cassidy, J.","year":"2002"},{"key":"atypb15","volume-title":"The Internet Galaxy. Reflections on the Internet, Business and Society","author":"Castells, M.","year":"2001"},{"key":"atypb16","volume-title":"De digitale economie 2004 [The Digital Economy 2004]","author":"Central Bureau of Statistics","year":"2005"},{"key":"atypb17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0040-1625(00)00122-0"},{"key":"atypb18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/249008"},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-3949-3"},{"key":"atypb20","volume-title":"The Social Impact of the Telephone","author":"De Sola Pool, I.","year":"1977"},{"key":"atypb21","volume-title":"Forecasting the Telephone: a Retrospective Technology Assessment","author":"De Sola Pool, I.","year":"1977"},{"key":"atypb22","volume-title":"What Will Be. How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives","author":"Dertouzous, M.","year":"1997"},{"key":"atypb23","volume-title":"The Unfinished Revolution. Human-centered Computers and What They Can Do for Us","author":"Dertouzous, M.","year":"2001"},{"key":"atypb24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005231926405"},{"issue":"2","key":"atypb25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1002\/for.856","volume":"22","author":"Durand, T.","year":"2003","journal-title":"Journal of Forecasting"},{"key":"atypb26","volume-title":"The EU-15's New Economy: a Statistical Portrait","author":"Eurostat\/Central Bureau of Statistics","year":"2005"},{"key":"atypb27","volume-title":"Dynamics of Modern Communication.The Shaping and Impact of New Communication Technologies","author":"Flichy, P.","year":"1995"},{"key":"atypb28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/019722400128338"},{"key":"atypb29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0016-3287(00)00036-7"},{"key":"atypb30","volume-title":"Monitoring of Technology Forecasting Activities","author":"Holtmannsp\u00f6tter, D.","year":"2001"},{"key":"atypb31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/6292.001.0001"},{"key":"atypb32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.849"},{"key":"atypb33","volume-title":"Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight","author":"Keenan, M.","year":"2003"},{"key":"atypb34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-4571(198901)40:1<17::AID-ASI3>3.0.CO;2-V"},{"key":"atypb35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/isre.13.2.205.83"},{"key":"atypb36","volume-title":"The Age of the Spiritual Machines. London","author":"Kurzweil, R.","year":"1999"},{"key":"atypb37","volume-title":"Delphi Method:Techniques and Applications","author":"Linstone, H.A.","year":"1975"},{"issue":"1","key":"atypb38","first-page":"33","volume":"1","author":"Loveridge, D.","year":"2004","journal-title":"Policy"},{"issue":"3","key":"atypb39","first-page":"206","volume":"13","author":"Lu, J.","year":"2003","journal-title":"Applications and Policy"},{"key":"atypb40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0306-4573(98)00037-5"},{"key":"atypb41","volume-title":"The Medium Is the Message","author":"McLuhan, M.","year":"1967"},{"key":"atypb42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(86)90028-2"},{"key":"atypb43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4135\/9781483325385.n9"},{"key":"atypb44","volume-title":"Communications Outlook 2003","author":"Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)","year":"2003"},{"key":"atypb45","volume-title":"Mobile End-user Service Adoption Studies: a Selective Review","author":"Pedersen, P.","year":"2002"},{"key":"atypb46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0040-1625(02)00187-7"},{"key":"atypb47","volume-title":"A Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis","author":"Porter,A.","year":"1980"},{"key":"atypb48","volume-title":"Predicting the Future: an Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting","author":"Rescher, N.","year":"1998"},{"key":"atypb49","volume-title":"Diffusion of Innovations","author":"Rogers, E.M.","year":"1983","edition":"4"},{"key":"atypb50","volume-title":"Proceedings of IEEE Workshop on Mobile Computing Systems and Applications","author":"Schilit, A."},{"key":"atypb51","volume-title":"Mega-mistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change","author":"Schnaars, S.P.","year":"1989"},{"key":"atypb52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203401491"},{"key":"atypb53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Silverstone, R. and L. Haddon (1996) `Design and the Domestication of Information and Communication Technologies: Technical Change and Everyday Life', in R. Mansell and R. Silverstone (eds) Communication by Design.The Politics of Information and Communication Technologies, pp. 44\u201474. Oxford: Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198289418.003.0003"},{"key":"atypb54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0267323104049461"},{"key":"atypb55","first-page":"16","year":"2004","journal-title":"The Economist"},{"key":"atypb56","volume-title":"Matching Media. Information Need and New Media Choice","author":"Van de Wijngaert, L.","year":"1999"},{"issue":"2","key":"atypb57","first-page":"8","volume":"4","author":"Van der Duin, P.A.","year":"2000","journal-title":"Scenario and Strategy Planning"},{"key":"atypb58","volume-title":"Scenarios.The Art of Strategic Conversation","author":"Van der Heijden, K.","year":"1996"},{"key":"atypb59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/14614440122226173"},{"key":"atypb60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3250959"},{"key":"atypb61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/30036540"},{"key":"atypb62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0308-5961(87)90008-5"},{"key":"atypb63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.854"},{"key":"atypb64","volume-title":"Research Methods and the New Media","author":"Williams, F.","year":"1988"}],"container-title":["New Media &amp; Society"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/1461444807076964","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/1461444807076964","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,2]],"date-time":"2026-05-02T05:29:35Z","timestamp":1777699775000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/1461444807076964"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,6]]},"references-count":64,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/1461444807076964"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1461444807076964","relation":{},"ISSN":["1461-4448","1461-7315"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1461-4448","type":"print"},{"value":"1461-7315","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,6]]}}}