{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]],"date-time":"2026-09-15T23:13:21Z","timestamp":1789514001922,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Int Assoc Provid AIDS Care"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Virological failure is defined as a plasma viral load &gt;1000 copies\/mL on 2 consecutive tests after 3 months of adherence support and 6 months of ART. In Ethiopia, limited studies have developed risk prediction models, though such models are vital for guiding patient-specific interventions and improving HIV treatment outcomes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study aims to determine the incidence and prognostic factors of virologic failure among HIV patients on first-line HAART following the one-J program at Felege Hiwot Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, in 2025.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A retrospective cohort study was conducted using patient records from Felegehiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Data were analyzed with STATA 17 and R 4.5.0. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression (via LASSO-selected predictors) were applied to develop a simplified nomogram. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis to assess clinical utility.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Result<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The incidence of virologic failure was 20.2% (95% CI: 17.9-22.6). Key predictors included TB-HIV co-infection, INH prophylaxis, CPT, adverse drug reactions, disclosure, alcohol use, smoking, and CD4 level. The model showed good performance (AUC = 0.817; reduced AUC = 0.810), strong calibration (Brier = 0.117), and superior clinical benefit in decision curve analysis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A nomogram integrating 8 predictors TB-HIV co-infection, INH prophylaxis, CPT, adverse drug reaction history, disclosure status, alcohol use, smoking status, and CD4 count showed excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.817) and good calibration, indicating strong potential for individualized risk prediction in HIV patient management.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/23259582261428509","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T05:40:26Z","timestamp":1772257226000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Validation of a Risk Prediction Nomogram for Virologic Failure Among Patients on First-Line ART After ONE-J Program Implementation in Northwest Ethiopia"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5712-5117","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bekalu","family":"Bewket","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Injibara University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Etsubdink Dessalew","family":"Abawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Debre Markos University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zelalem Alamrew","family":"Anteneh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bahir Dar University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","volume-title":"Health at a Glance: Asia\/Pacific 2022 Measuring Progress Towards Universal Health Coverage: Measuring Progress Towards Universal Health Coverage","author":"Organization WH","year":"2022","unstructured":"Organization WH. 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