{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,8]],"date-time":"2026-02-08T01:49:14Z","timestamp":1770515354349,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,20]],"date-time":"2016-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1468972800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> All over Europe, it is a known fact that cities are shrinking. One of the main causes is population decline, but the consequent reduction of urban area is neither immediate nor easy to foresee spatially. Questions arise such as where do cities start to \u2018shrink\u2019 first? What are the most fragile areas that face the risk of becoming derelict? What are the most vulnerable social groups? And how does this affect real estate values across the city? Existing models for projecting the effects of shrinkage have been criticized for lacking spatial-explicitness, being excessively data-dependent, and failing to incorporate various socio-economic, urban and environmental aspects in the assessment of attractiveness of urban areas and of decisions by households. In this article, we attempt to overcome this criticism by applying the spatially-explicit Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development decision support tool (SULD), based on hedonic pricing theory, in two cities in southern Europe (Aveiro, Portugal and Imperia, Italy). SULD is used to project, assess and compare changes in land-use, household type distribution, real estate values and household densities, in three different scenarios of population decline (\u22125%, \u221210% and \u221215%). Results quantify the amount of contraction of urban area, housing quantity and living space; highlight the most problematic areas; and uncover low income households as the least affected, whereas the relocation of high income households may cause gentrification of medium income households in some areas of the historical city centre. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0265813516659071","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,21]],"date-time":"2016-07-21T01:29:36Z","timestamp":1469064576000},"page":"1122-1144","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Dimensions of shrinkage: Evaluating the socio-economic consequences of population decline in two medium-sized cities in Europe, using the SULD decision support tool"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"44","author":[{"given":"Miguel","family":"Saraiva","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CEGOT Research Center, Faculty of Arts & CITTA Research Center, Faculty of Engineering; University of Porto, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Roebeling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Silvia","family":"Sousa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CITTA Research Center, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Carla","family":"Teot\u00f3nio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Palla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Genova, Italy"}]},{"given":"Ilaria","family":"Gnecco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Genova, Italy"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0265813516659071","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14616710600973102"},{"key":"bibr2-0265813516659071","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Balchin P (2013) Housing Policy in Europe. 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