{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T18:20:23Z","timestamp":1778782823260,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,10]],"date-time":"2015-07-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1436486400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Palliat Med"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Monitoring where people die is key to ensure that palliative care is provided in a responsive and integrated way.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aim:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To examine trends of place of death and project hospital deaths until 2030 in an ageing country without integrated palliative care.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Population-based observational study of mortality with past trends analysis of place of death by gender, age and cause of death. Hospital deaths were projected until 2030, applying three scenarios modelled on 5-year trends (2006\u20132010).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Setting\/participants:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>All adult deaths (\u2a7e18 years old) that occurred in Portuguese territory from 1988 to 2010.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>There were 2,364,932 deceased adults in Portugal from 1988 to 2010. Annual numbers of deaths increased 11.1%, from 95,154 in 1988 to 105,691, mainly due to more than doubling deaths from people aged 85+ years. Hospital deaths increased by a mean of 0.8% per year, from 44.7% ( n\u2009=\u200942,571) in 1988 to 61.7% ( n\u2009=\u200965,221) in 2010. This rise was largest for those aged 85+ years (27.8% to 54.0%). Regardless of the scenario considered, and if current trends continue, hospital deaths will increase by more than a quarter until 2030 (minimum 27.7%, maximum 52.1% rise) to at least 83,293 annual hospital deaths, mainly due to the increase in hospital deaths in those aged 85+ years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In one of the most ageing countries in the world, there is a long standing trend towards hospitalised dying, more pronounced among the oldest old. To meet people\u2019s preferences for dying at home, the development of integrated specialist home palliative care teams is needed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/0269216315594974","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,10]],"date-time":"2015-07-10T22:14:46Z","timestamp":1436566486000},"page":"363-373","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"30","author":[{"given":"Vera P","family":"Sarmento","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"King\u2019s College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK"},{"name":"Servi\u00e7o de Medicina 2, Hospital do Esp\u00edrito Santo de \u00c9vora, \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Irene J","family":"Higginson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"King\u2019s College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK"}]},{"given":"Pedro L","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Coimbra, Centre for Health Studies and Research, Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Barbara","family":"Gomes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"King\u2019s College London, Cicely Saunders Institute, Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, London, UK"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0269216315594974","volume-title":"Population ageing and development 2012","author":"Department of Economic and Social Affairs","year":"2012"},{"key":"bibr2-0269216315594974","first-page":"3","volume-title":"Living with ageing and dying: palliative and end of life care for older people","author":"Gomes B","year":"2011","edition":"1"},{"key":"bibr3-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-684X-12-7"},{"key":"bibr4-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdr602"},{"key":"bibr5-0269216315594974","volume-title":"The solid facts: palliative care","author":"Davies E","year":"2004"},{"key":"bibr6-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.20344\/amp.429","volume":"26","author":"Gomes B","year":"2013","journal-title":"Acta Med Port"},{"key":"bibr7-0269216315594974","volume-title":"Global atlas of palliative care at the end of life","author":"Connor SR","year":"2014"},{"key":"bibr8-0269216315594974","volume-title":"Strengthening of palliative care as a component of integrated treatment within the continuum of care","author":"World Health Organization Executive Board","year":"2014"},{"key":"bibr9-0269216315594974","volume-title":"Verifica\u00e7\u00e3o da morte: Lei No. 141\/99 de 28 de Agosto","author":"Di\u00e1rio da Rep\u00fablica","year":"1999"},{"key":"bibr10-0269216315594974","volume-title":"The 2012 ageing report: underlying assumptions and projections methodologies","author":"Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs","year":"2011"},{"key":"bibr11-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0269216307084606"},{"key":"bibr12-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2012.06.014"},{"key":"bibr13-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-11-228"},{"key":"bibr14-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.23.3.194"},{"key":"bibr15-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00038-012-0394-5"},{"key":"bibr16-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/495449c"},{"key":"bibr17-0269216315594974","volume-title":"Health at a glance: Europe 2012","author":"OECD","year":"2012"},{"key":"bibr18-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0269216311432329"},{"key":"bibr19-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2009.03.006"},{"key":"bibr20-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.38740.614954.55"},{"key":"bibr21-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1478951509990939"},{"key":"bibr22-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-684X-5-2"},{"key":"bibr23-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2009.23.2850"},{"key":"bibr24-0269216315594974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001410"},{"key":"bibr25-0269216315594974","first-page":"CD007760","volume":"6","author":"Gomes B","year":"2013","journal-title":"Cochrane Database Syst Rev"}],"container-title":["Palliative Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0269216315594974","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/0269216315594974","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/0269216315594974","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T18:23:23Z","timestamp":1777659803000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0269216315594974"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,10]]},"references-count":25,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/0269216315594974"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0269216315594974","relation":{},"ISSN":["0269-2163","1477-030X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0269-2163","type":"print"},{"value":"1477-030X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,10]]}}}