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Hierarchical Bayesian models allow great flexibility in their specification, especially if they are combined with conditional autoregressive terms that can take into account spatial dependencies between model parameters. For rail track geometry degradation, conditional autoregressive terms are specified to tackle spatial interactions between consecutive rail track sections in rail track lines. An analysis of inspection, operation and maintenance data from the main Portuguese line (Lisbon\u2013Oporto) motivates and illustrates the proposed predictive models. Inference is then conducted based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which is proposed for fitting different model specifications. Finally, model comparison and a sensitivity analysis on prior distribution parameters are assessed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/0954409713486619","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,25]],"date-time":"2013-05-25T01:42:09Z","timestamp":1369446129000},"page":"364-375","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":51,"title":["Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of rail track geometry degradation"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"227","author":[{"given":"Ant\u00f3nio Ramos","family":"Andrade","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade T\u00e9cnica de Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Paulo Fonseca","family":"Teixeira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade T\u00e9cnica de Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-0954409713486619","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0361198106194300107"},{"key":"bibr2-0954409713486619","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3141\/1863-11"},{"key":"bibr3-0954409713486619","volume-title":"Best practice guide for optimum track geometry durability","author":"UIC","year":"2008"},{"key":"bibr4-0954409713486619","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Esveld C. 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In:\n                      The eighth international conference on railway engineering\n                      , London, UK, 2005, pp. 54\u201362. London: University of Westminster."},{"key":"bibr17-0954409713486619","unstructured":"Veit P. Track quality \u2013 luxury or necessity? Maintenance & renewal\n                      . J Railway Tech Rev\n                      2007; 8\u201312. ISBN 978-3-7772-0367-9."},{"key":"bibr18-0954409713486619","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1243\/0954409JRRT62"},{"key":"bibr19-0954409713486619","unstructured":"Quiroga LM and Schnieder E. Monte Carlo simulation of railway track geometry deterioration and restoration. 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